I found myself getting into an argument the other day. I was having lunch with a couple of friends and was introduced to a gentleman who seemed to be a little angry about the economy. When he found out that I was a Realtor, he could hardly hide his disdain for the profession. He felt that the problems were helped along by unscrupulous real estate agents. I bet you haven’t heard that before! Now, here’s the punch-line: He was glad so many real estate agents are leaving the business. “So what if a few agents loose their jobs?” Indeed, I feel his pain. In fact, I have no argument with the fact that during the last decade, becoming a real estate agent and making a descent living was what economists call “easy entry.” This is a fancy way of saying that one didn’t have to pay their dues to g... 01/31/2009

Property taxes are always irritating. Homeowners (myself included) hate to pay them. Doesn’t it always feel like we’re being picked-on by the school-yard bully? And yet, because of voter approved increases and the fact that schools, police, fire departments and other public services are funded through this tax, they are a necessary evil. Truly, I don’t mind being taxed when I know my schools are being funded (even though I have no children) or, if my neighbor’s house is on fire, the fire department will come to the rescue! So, house values here in Kenmore, WA are down 9% since last year.  So shouldn’t my property taxes go down? Not this year I’m afraid: Here’s what Rich Medved, chief deputy to the King County assessor had to say about the property tax assessments for 2009: “there’s stil... 01/30/2009

Until recently, the Seattle area has been considered more insulated from the doom and gloom experienced by many other parts of the country. I’d like to think so. You would like to think so. The Real Estate Gurus would like to think so. The author of The Secret would like to apply the Law of Attraction and make it so…………..You know where I’m going with this: The economics of the Northwest are not exempt from the huge macro-economic problems faced by the general economy. And, yes, I will use the new lay-offs at Microsoft as yet another indication that even the high tech sector is finally feeling the contraction in our market. Ultimately, it’s the real-life phenomena of what economists call “the multiplier effect” that’s accelerating the contraction of our local economy: It’s the old rule-... 01/23/2009

Wisdom Comes in All Forms! Yesterday, right ahead of the Inauguration, Adam Carolla, the morning-radio-talk show host, made one of the most insightful comments about the American psyche that I’ve heard in a long time. He said that Americans are some of the toughest self-critics in the world. We are really hard on ourselves as a nation: we’re demanding of our government; we’re critical of each other; we question our collective values; and, clearly, we can sometimes be very mean to each other. He made this observation with regard to  Barack Obama and the incredible excitement generated by his election. Adam said it felt as if our collective self-loathing had been lifted, if only for a moment. Now, I must confess, over the last several days, I’ve been spending  time in the blogosphere read... 01/22/2009

CHANGE.GOV - SPEAK OUT, SPEAK NOW!   As the Inaguration of President Elect Barack Obama quickly approaches, Americans know that we face an incredibly challenging future. To say that Mr. Obama has taken on the troubles of the world is an understatement. Now here’s something interesting: The Obama Transition Team is actually asking us, you & me, to give our suggestions and tell our stories. They actually want to hear our ideas to help solve the problems we face. I spent some time looking through the suggestions of a lot of people on Change.gov just to see if the site would be filled with cynical, angry commentary. On the contrary, there are a lot of thoughtful and concerned Americans who have some excellent, creative ideas. Why don’t you add yours to the list? If you are interested, just ... 01/17/2009

The National Association of Realtors has unleashed a media campaign with the theme "Affordability has improved!" When I heard this on the radio this morning, I had to stop and consider whether this is true. After all, home prices are dropping and interest rates are at historic lows. Sounds good. Sounds really good......................but, let's look at reality for a moment: Today I'm going to share some sobering and grim real estate statistics from both a national and local perspective. Please believe me, for those of you who have excellent credit, secure employment, cash reserves and a desire to purchase a home, this may be an "affordable" market. But, let's not sugar-coat the overall market. It's still a risky place to be: Foreclosure Filings At Record Highs - UP 81% Here are severa... 01/15/2009

Let’s start with a definition. What is Market Share? Market share, in strategic management and marketing, is the percentage or proportion of the total available market or market segment that is being serviced by a company. It can be expressed as a company’s sales revenue (from that market) divided by the total sales revenue available in that market. It can also be expressed as a company’s unit sales volume (in a market) divided by the total volume of units sold in that market. It is generally necessary to commission market research (generally desk/secondary research, although sometimes primary research) to estimate the total market size and a company’s market share.   Yesterday, during a conversation about the Kenmore housing market, one of my neighbors  asked me who held the largest m... 01/13/2009

Even though I am not a religious person, I had a chill of excitement run up my spine when I read the following on Politico.com: “Though there is no constitutional requirement for the use of a Bible during the swearing-in, Presidents have traditionally used Bibles for the ceremony, choosing a volume with personal or historical significance. President-elect Obama will be the first President sworn in using the Lincoln Bible since its initial use in 1861.”  (read the full article by clicking here) Then this thought went through my mind: There is nothing more profoundly significant and powerful than the symbolism of Barack Obama, our first mixed-race President,  putting his hand on the bible that Abraham Lincoln used when being sworn in as President of the United States of America. What cou... 01/12/2009

Brad Listi, a contributing writer to the Huffington Post asks a clever question today: What Do We Call the current Financial Crisis? After all, most historical events don't get named until after they happen: The World Wars, the Great Depression. He's actually come up with some good names for what's going on today: The Not-So-Great Depression, The Greed Depression, Americorpse, The Boomer Bust, and there are others! This is good stuff. But I believe there is a deeper question to ask. It will determine if we come out of this "depression." What Are People For? “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In the First stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted it misses progress by failing in constructiveness and persistence. This is the condition of childr... 01/10/2009

Kenmore maintained a large inventory of single family homes in 2008. On any give day there were over 200 homes for sale; however, this changed in November and December. Today the inventory has dropped quite a bit as there are 149 active listings: SNAPSHOT OF ACTIVE LISTINGS TODAY The majority of homes are between $350,000 and $550,000. The average days-on-market are a little over 3 months. I’ve noticed that a lot of resale homes have dropped out of the game since November. We may see them return as Spring approaches (and the sellers sober-up about pricing). Even so, 44% of listings have experienced price reductions, some being significant. It’s also interesting to note that almost 35% of the homes for sale today are new construction. PENDING SALES - LARGE % OF SHORT SALES The good news... 01/09/2009

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service released it’s monthly press release for December 2008. The results from 2008 were as one would expect - heart breaking. It was not hard for market observers to guess that the sour financial markets and the insane weather this last month basically knocked-out home sales with a big left hook in the last round of 2008. Ouch! Bloody nose! I’m going to stick with basic home sale statistics for Kenmore in this post. In the next several days there is going to be a lot of year-end data and analysis that I will share with you. For now, let’s keep it simple and local. Just click on the graphs for a large, more detailed image: UNITS SOLD UNITS SOLD, 4-YEAR TREND Numbers: 2005 - 42 sold, 2006 - 24 sold, 2007 - 19, 2008 - 13 There has been a steady decline in ... 01/08/2009

The Real Estate gods must have been connecting the agent subconscious yesterday. As I was writing about the influence of technology on the real estate industry, Ardell DellaLoggia of Rain City Guide was writing an extremely thought provoking post entitled: Open Letter to NWMLS and Local Agents. Ardell asks us to consider the functionality of the MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE which is the hallmark database used by real estate agents. In short, she believes the system is broken and it needs repair. It no longer adequately addresses the needs of the consumer or, for that matter the agents. I agree. I believe that the age of agent-controlled multiple listing services are coming to an end, much like the Alaskan Way Viaduct here in Seattle. They are functional, utilitarian (if you have access), u... 01/05/2009

A commodity is anything for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market. In other words, copper is copper. Rice is rice. Have real estate services become a commodity? Let’s examine this idea: OUR FIRST HOUSE IN SHORELINE, WA My wife and I purchased our first house in 1989. It was a small 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the Shorecrest neighborhood of Shoreline, WA. We lived there for 16 wonderful years. It was 810 square feet, had a perfect-sized yard (about 6000 sq ft) and I remember we bought it because there was a raspberry patch in the back yard! THE VALUE OF A REAL ESTATE AGENT THEN The real reason we purchased that particular house was because we were working with a good Realtor. In the late 1980’s there was a rush to purchase home... 01/04/2009

After stewing over what to say about the Real Estate Market in 2009, and knowing full-well that I’m not qualified to make profound “predictions” about the marketplace, I have chosen to take my own advice and “outsource” the job to one of my favorite resources: HousingPredictor.com. I highly recommend you take a look at this informative website. Some of the more interesting topics are the Top and Worst Picks for 2009. As you can see, the Top 25 Housing Markets are not expected to experience much appreciation in the coming year: And if that wasn’t inspiring, please turn your attention to the Worst Market numbers: As you can see, Seattle is not likely to avoid the overall downturn in the housing market. Many experts have been saying that we tend to trail behind national trends, which mean... 01/03/2009

This evening I was reading through one of my favorite political blogs, www.truthdig.com, and I came across an interesting presentation tool used by the author to illustrate the current economic breakdown. If you click on the picture, you can see how it works. It's actually quite powerful: So, the blogger is using a very clever, visual time line to describe the financial meltdown. He's using Capzles. Capzles allows the blogger to create a very nice slide-show/time-line style presentation for almost any subject. I wanted to see if we "average" bloggers could utilize this technology, so I created a very basic presentation on how to set up your own Google Alert. Here's how it turned out: The great thing about Capzles is that it provides the new user with an adequate number of design templat... 01/01/2009

If I, Mr. Freeze, the Financial Curmudgeon, had a dime for every news story in 2008 that reported on yet another failed bank, or multi-billion dollar ponzi scheme, failing car company, disappearance of the American manufacturing sector, hundreds of thousands of lost jobs, crumbling infrastructure, unbelievable corporate bailouts/bridge-loans, outsourcing, no-bid contracts or the real estate disaster......then I would be able to pay off the whole national debt three times over. By the way........ But Mr. Freeze lives in the real world. Mr. Freeze has never felt comfortable with investment banks, hedge funds, derivatives, or the regular old Stock Market. Mr. Freeze always tells people to live within their means. Keep a rainy-day fund of three to six months cash in the bank. Have just one... 12/31/2008

BLOGGING I began blogging in April as a means to advertise my real estate business. At that time it was simply a dollars and cents decision. I thought it would be less expensive than print advertising (which didn’t seem to be very effective anymore). What I didn’t realize was how blogging would fundamentally change my perspective about EVERYTHING! It started out as a high-tech way to convey real estate statistics and talk about the market (not too exciting). It has ended up being far more than that: 1) It has become the creative outlet I’ve always wanted: writing, interviewing, interacting, taking pictures, educating, journaling and philosophizing ALL IN ONE PLACE!!!!! 2) Blogging has made me smarter. Really!!!  Just ask my wife. Strike that, just take my word for it! 3) Blogging forced... 12/30/2008

“This above all: to thine own self be true, And it must follow, as the night the day, Thou Canst not then be false to any man. Farewell, my blessing season this in thee.” Polonius          Hamlet Act 1, scene 3, 78–82 At the end of every year we all have license to get a little philosophical. 2008 is exceptional in this regard. There is a LOT to get philosophical about: war, failing economy, real estate bubble burst, starvation in Africa, car company crashes, never-ending election campaigns, and on and on. It’s simply overwhelming. If none of this has touched you personally, you’re not paying enough attention! On a very personal level, I can’t remember a time in my life when the troubles of the world were more evident. Nor can I remember a time when I have felt more powerless to change... 12/29/2008

  I’ve broken out the 2008 Kenmore, WA home sale statistics into some interesting categories so you can get a sense of how the housing market has performed this year. I realize we don’t have the year-end numbers yet, but a number of my friends and neighbors have been asking me if the market is as bad as the media says it is. The following charts might put some things in perspective. You can see larger versions of the charts if you click on them: SALES BY VOLUME - MEANING THE TOTAL VALUE OF GOODS SOLD The charts below show a steady drop in the total sales revenue generated in the last several years. Between 2006 and 2007 there was a 2.5% change in sales revenue; however, we saw a -48% drop between 2007 and 2008. 2008 2006-2008 HOME PRICES This is probably the category of statistics that’... 12/27/2008

THE FIVE STAGES OF GRIEF DENIAL, ANGER, BARGAINING, DEPRESSION, ACCEPTANCE A little over a year ago I attended a “team meeting” at the Keller Williams Realty office where I hung my license. I remember the day clearly because there were a lot of angry and frustrated agents who were having trouble selling houses. What, they wondered, was wrong? At that time I think we all had a sense that something had shifted out there in the world, we just did not know exactly what it was. Our broker and one of our more “market savvy” colleagues had some unsettling news: Experts were saying that serious problems existed with the sub-prime markets, that something was terribly wrong with mortgage backed securities, and economists had concerns the housing bubble was going to burst……… Needless to say, four... 12/26/2008