Last week included both problems and progress in the housing market. Getting the probs out of the way, June Existing Home Sales came in down 0.8% versus May, to an annual rate still below 5 million units, lifting the months' supply to 9.5. But all the sales decline was from condos and coops, single-family sales staying the same. We appear to be bouncing along a bottom, as the median price of an existing home rose for the month and is now up 0.8% from last year. Average prices are up 2.7% versus a year ago.But strong progress could be seen in the new homes market, as June Housing Starts were UP 14.6%, with gains occurring in all major regions. Multi-family starts, which are very volatile month-to-month, were up strongly, but so were single-family starts, UP 9.4% over May, while new build... 07/25/2011

Thursday's Greek bailout spurred bond selling. U.S. debt ceiling squabbles didn't help bonds either, although this may change as the August 2 deadline approaches. The FNMA 4.0% bond we follow ended the week down .06, at $100.22. National average mortgage rates hardly moved for the week, staying near their lows for the year, according to Freddie Mac.  From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 25, 2011 07/25/2011

European leaders finally agreed on a Greek bail out, which sent stock prices skyward on Wall Street, posting a better than 2% gain for the broadly based S&P 500. The Euros also got serious about controlling the risk of contagion, coming up with longer term loans at lower interest rates for countries in need. The risk has been reduced for U.S. banks holding European bonds and the European Union seems likely to survive. Phew.On our side of the pond, Washington politicians still couldn't come to agreement on raising the debt ceiling, but the deadline isn't until a week from tomorrow, so investors are not yet concerned. The really positive vibe came with Q2 corporate earnings. About 20% of S&P 500 companies reported and around 75% of them beat estimates, including IBM, Johnson & Johnson, AT... 07/25/2011

With the economic recovery in slow motion, economists expect the Funds Rate to stay at its super low level a bit longer. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9 0%-0.25% Sep 20 0%-0.25% Nov 2 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9      <1% Sep 20      <1% Nov 2      <1% From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 25, 2011 07/25/2011

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuJul 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 56.0 58.5 Moderate TuJul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 320K 319K Moderate WJul 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jun 0.4% 2.1% Moderate WJul 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 7/23 NA -3.727M Moderate WJul 27 14:00 Fed Beige Book Jul NA NA Moderate ThJul 28 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 7/23 415K 418K Moderate ThJul 28 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 7/16 3.688M 3.698M Moderate ThJul 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.0% 8.2% Moderate FJul 29 08:30 GDP-Advanced Q2 1.6% 1.9% Moderate FJul 29 08:30 GDP-Deflator Q2 2.0% 2.0% Moderate FJul 29 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.5% 0.6% HIGH FJul 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 58.0 61.1 HIGH FJul 29 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Jul 63.8 63.8 Mode... 07/25/2011

07/25/2011

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a June median price of $545,950, about 6% higher than in May and 17% lower than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price rose 3% from last month to $522,000 and is 3% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is about 28% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 20% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in June was down 16% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (257) rose 10% from May and is about 1% lower than a year ago.  The inventory turnov... 07/19/2011

BUILDING, HOME SELLING EDGING UP...Tuesday's June Housing Starts are forecast up slightly from last month, although still not near pre-downturn levels. Building Permits, foreshadowing starts a few months out, are expected to be flat. Wednesday, June Existing Home Sales should also be up, but not quite back to the 5 million annual rate. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims are predicted to remain above 400,000. The Philadelphia Fed Index should show manufacturing in that region improved over last month. Finally, the June Leading Economic Indicators Index is expected to be up for the month, though at a lower rate than before. From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 18, 2011 07/18/2011

European debt worries and disappointing economic news sent investors to the safe haven of the bond market. Successful Treasury auctions showed these folks weren't worried about U.S. debt. The FNMA 4.0% bond we follow ended the week UP .09, at $100.28. National average rates on fixed-rate mortgages, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, are at or near lows for the year.  (So much for QE2 ending and sending mortgage rates higher - once again showing that Conventional Wisdom and herd instinct is often just plain wrong.) From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 18, 2011 07/18/2011

The word of the week was "debt" as investors worried about both Italy's sovereign debt problems and the inability of the politicians in Washington to get to agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. With these uncertainties, stocks wobbled off their high perch and all three indexes sank for the week, the broad-based S&P 500 down 2%. The FOMC Minutes from the Fed's last meeting revealed a divided committee. Some officials feel the central bank "might have to consider providing additional monetary stimulus" if the recovery remains slow. Others think inflation threats could cause them "to begin removing policy accommodation sooner." Tracking inflation, the June Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up a little more than expected, but consumers weren't that put off, as June Retail Sales wer... 07/18/2011

Increasingly, the wrong thing for consumers to do is to stay out of the housing market. In many locales, owning a home is now less expensive than renting. Rents are rising and vacancies falling, according to a report that tracked leasing data across the country. For the second quarter, rents rose in all but two of 82 markets, while vacancies dropped in 72 of them, sending the vacancy rate to 6%, its lowest level since 2008. Another report showed rental listing prices up 6.7% nationally in June versus a year ago. Meanwhile, national average mortgage rates got pushed down some more, thanks to the prior week's disappointing jobs report. And the Mortgage Bankers Association reported demand for purchase loans was at about the same level as a year ago, although down a tad from the week before... 07/18/2011

Fed Chairman Bernanke still feels the recovery needs all the help it can get, so economists expect he'll keep the Funds Rate at its super low level a bit longer. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9 0%-0.25% Sep 20 0%-0.25% Nov 2 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9      <1% Sep 20      <1% Nov 2      <1% From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 18, 2011 07/18/2011

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuJul 19 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 570K 560K Moderate TuJul 19 08:30 Building Permits Jun 609K 609K Moderate WJul 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 4.93M 4.81M Moderate WJul 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 7/16 NA -3.124M Moderate ThJul 21 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 7/16 411K 405K Moderate ThJul 21 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 7/9 3.700M 3.727M Moderate ThJul 21 11:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Jul 0.0 -7.70 HIGH ThJul 21 08:30 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index Jun 0.3% 0.8% Moderate From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 18, 2011 07/18/2011

07/18/2011

This week we get a good look at the economy. June Retail Sales are forecast down from May, flat if you take out auto sales. But Industrial Production and factory Capacity Utilization should both inch up, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected slightly off.Although the economic recovery is in slow motion, at least inflation isn't growing much either. This week's readings on wholesale (PPI) and retail (CPI) prices should both show slight declines for June. Midweek we'll get the Fed's feelings on it all, as the FOMC Minutes from their June 22 meeting are released. From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 11, 2011   07/11/2011

The bulls charged as stocks gained for the first three days of the holiday-shortened week. Then Friday morning the June Employment Report showed jobs down on every front. The markets dipped for the day, but ended up for the week. The downer? A piddling 18,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month and April and May payrolls were revised lower, while the unemployment rate went to 9.2%. The economy certainly hit a "soft patch" in Q2. There was, however, positive labor news. New unemployment claims fell 14,000 for the week and continuing claims were down 43,000 to 3.681 million, the second lowest level in the recovery. Retailers delivered some solid same-store sales reports, so consumers are indeed spending. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined for the month, but is still above 50, so ... 07/11/2011

It finally appears seeds are being planted for a housing recovery. Fannie Mae's monthly survey reported that Americans expect home prices to drop just 0.5% in the next year. Some reported this as a negative because a 0.7% price gain was expected last month. But other analysts see this as a bottom, and those surveyed agree, as the majority (69%) believe it's a good time to buy a home. A MacroMarkets LLC study echoed this. More than 50% of the economists, real estate experts and investment strategists polled said they expect a bottom for national home prices this year. Almost two thirds of the respondents felt our residential real estate market is at an historic turning point.The Wall Street Journal also reported this could be a good time to buy. The reasons? Mortgage rates are near 50-ye... 07/11/2011

Expert opinion still says the Funds Rate will stay at its super low level for a few more Fed meetings at least. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9 0%-0.25% Sep 20 0%-0.25% Nov 2 0%-0.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Aug 9      <1% Sep 20      <1% Nov 2      <1% From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, July 11, 2011 07/11/2011

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 11 - July 15  Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact TuJul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$44.0B -$43.7B Moderate WJul 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 7/9 NA -0.889M Moderate WJul 13 14:00 FOMC Minutes 6/22 NA NA HIGH ThJul 14 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 7/9 419K 418K Moderate ThJul 14 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 7/2 3.700M 3.681M Moderate ThJul 14 11:00 Retail Sales Jun -0.2% -0.2% HIGH ThJul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.0% 0.3% HIGH ThJul 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Jun -0.3% 0.2% Moderate ThJul 14 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% Moderate ThJul 14 08:30 Business Inventories May 0.9% 0.8% Moderate FJul 15 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jun -0.1% 0.2% HIGH FJul 15 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.3% HIGH FJul 15 08:30 Empir... 07/11/2011

07/11/2011