Anyone trying to understand the wild fluctuations in Belmont's median home price need look no further than this chart.   We've tracked the median home price in Belmont over the last year-ever since the mortgage crises. What we were looking for was the impact it would have on home values. We sure were stunned to see a $200,000 median price increase last December, which lead us to go back and track the median size home selling too; this way, we could adjust for larger or smaller homes selling in a particular month. Now that we've plotted the data, it's easy to see that the dramatic swings in median value correspond directly to the large fluctuations in the size of the homes sold during a particular month. Belmont only has 20 or so sales a month-sometimes far less-so just a few larger than... 08/15/2008

Housing reform and what it could mean for you. In our three part series on the housing reform bill we discuss three major changes that could impact your decision to buy, sell or refinance your home. Part 1 Listen to this short introduction in the player or subscribe to the full Podcast Download housing_reform.mp3 If you can imagine a ball of Silly Putty rolling down the aisles of the senate floor and how much unwanted stuff would stick to it, you can imagine what happened to the housing reform bill as it made its way through congress. Some of what was tacked onto the bill had nothing to do with the current lending issues at all. At over 700 pages long, it will take awhile to discern what the ramifications will be in the housing or financial markets, but suffice to say we’ve found some i... 08/14/2008

We’ve updated the list of various Belmont neighborhood associations Download belmont_neighborhood_associations.pdf with an interactive map. Open the PDF file and click on the neighborhood association name in your neighborhood to jump to their web page. The Neighborhood associations below are non-profit organizations which to not mandate membership, but rather request a donation to continue their mission. If you aren’t familiar with your neighborhood association in Belmont, open the attached map and see if they have information on their meetings. We belong to the Belmont Heights Civic Improvement Association and it’s a cause well worth supporting. It’s nice to have a group watching out for your neighborhood. Belmont Heights Civic Improvement Association Central Neighborhood Association C... 08/08/2008

Anyone trying to understand the wild fluctuations in Belmont's median home price need look no further than this chart. We've tracked the median home price in Belmont over the last year-ever since the mortgage crises. What we were looking for was the impact it would have on home values. We sure were stunned to see a $200,000 median price increase last December, which lead us to go back and track the median size home selling too; this way, we could adjust for larger or smaller homes selling in a particular month. Now that we've plotted the data, it's easy to see that the dramatic swings in medina value correspond directly to the large fluctuations in the size of the homes sold during a particular month. Belmont only has 20 or so sales a month-sometimes far less-so just a few larger than a... 08/04/2008

Since the mortgage catastrophe one year ago came to light the media has been reporting month over month data revealing falling prices and sales. Seasonal adjustments were impossible since that would necessitate comparing data to the same period a year prior—hardly comparing apples to apples since July of 2007 we’ve been in a downward housing cycle. Obviously the housing market for sellers is not as good as it was before the housing woes were revealed in July of 2007, but what since then? How far has the market dropped? Finally we can compare this July’s housing performance to the same market cycle as last year—in a downturn—to see the effects it has had on the mid-peninsula market. Here are the statistics for Belmont, California comparing June 2008 to July 2008 and year over year to Ju... 08/04/2008

The month’s supply of homes is a great indicator of whether it’s a seller’s or buyer’s market, and how bullish the market is in general. This barometer is calculated by dividing the number of homes available for sale by the number of sales per month. We’ve tried to smooth out monthly anomalies by taking a three month moving average. Still, it’s clear that the beginning of the year was eventful. What made it so was not an unusual number of new listings but an abnormally low number of sales. So long as sales keep pace with the inventory of homes this line should be straight. Anytime the month’s supply of homes is greater than two (months), it tends to indicate a buyer’s market. Note that for Belmont it’s currently at 3.25—clearly into Buyers market territory. To help put this number into ... 08/03/2008

Comparable Sale Approach The Comparable sale approach is the most widely used in the industry. It is based on comparing homes which have recently sold in close proximity to the subject property. This approach tends to be the most reliable as it accounts for a buyer's perception of value. This approach provides one of the best methods for estimating value only if an ample supply of recent sales of properties with similar characteristics is available.   The sales comparison approach relies upon development of a value estimate from prices paid in the open market for properties with adequate exposure to ensure that the prices represent fair market value.  In a quantitative analysis, several "arms length" market sales are compared to the subject property based upon some unit of comparison su... 07/31/2008

This home, located atop one of Belmont's mountains, is the best deal of the week for several reasons. Price is obvisoulsy a major factor and this home could easily have been priced at $1,050,000 in our estimation. It has a great location, a warm micro-climate in the Belmont hills, and a fun floorplan that exudes charm and personality. The rear yard looks great for entertaining and it's on a huge lot too. BTW--last week's best deal already sold in multiple offers. View All Photos      OAK KNOLL DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)$988,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s)   DOM: 2  CDOM: 2   MLS: 80824402  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,965 Yr Built / Age: 1956 / 52 years Assoc Fee:   Lot: 8,250 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $988,000 Sale Price:   Sale ... 07/30/2008

Belmont--New Listings & Sales With 47 Active listings Belmont's inventory is holding steady. Last week saw five new listings-five more than last week. Another seven homes went pending and 11 closed escrow. Here's a quick summary: Pine Knoll is a secluded street atop a knoll in one of Belmont older neighborhoods. This is a cute home which was originally a small summer cabin. In fact, it still is a small cabin and needs to be totally redone in order to make a real house out of it. One gets a sense of the fun summer vacations which were no doubt had at this location.       1504 PINE KNOLL DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)$899,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s)   DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 80821315    Property Overview   Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 2 / 1 SqFt: 1,330 Yr Built / Age: 19... 07/19/2008

This home wasn't some fantastic steal of a deal but it was a really nice home. I say was because it was on tour Tuesday and has already sold. Who said the days of fast sales are over! 1612 Clee Street, Belmont $848,500 2/1 1300 Sq. Ft. Clee Street is a little known side street off of Chevy, another obscure street. Not many homes trade hands on either street. The neighborhood is part of the old golf course. The area was developed in the 1940's for returning veterans after the gold course went bankrupt. It's one of the few neighborhoods in Belmont with sidewalks and level streets making it ideal for the stroller set crowd or elderly.  And of course it's always nice to walk on over to Vivace for dinner. So our best value vote goes to East Laurel Creek. What this home lacks in traditional a... 07/18/2008

With 46 homes for sale, Belmont's inventory is down this week. Twenty six more have a pending sale. Part of the reason the inventory is low this week is the number of new listings was ZERO. That's very unusual for the summer market. Seven homes went into a pending sale status last week (all but one was under a million dollars) and another six homes closed escrow--two from our Carlmont Associates Brokerage (see below). One of our picks for the "Best Deal of the Week" on Carmelita closed escrow for $710,000--$11,000 over asking.  Belmont Closings--Week ending July 10, 2008   2000 MONROE AVDetached Single Family (Class 1) 3 bed(s) /2 1/2 bath(s) 3,920 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $998,888 MLS: 80809927     2503 CARMELITA AVDetached Single Family (Class 1) 2 bed(s) /1 bath(s) 5,829 sq ft  Belm... 07/09/2008

Not that you have to worry about reading it in the print media anytime soon, but just to give you a head's up the reported median price for Belmont in June fell from $1,098,750 in May to $892,500  or 18.7% in June. Of course we're here to put that stunning decline in perspective. Smaller homes sold in June as compared to May skewing the median price as smaller homes tend to sell for less. The median size home in June was a whopping 390 square feet smaller than in May. At the going rate of $530.00 per square foot that accounts for $206,700 of price differential. Accounting for this, the adjusted median price for June would be $1,099,200-statistically unchanged. (Click on the graph for a full-size view) ↑Sale were up slightly as there were 20 sales in June compared to 17 in May ↔The numbe... 07/02/2008

It’s official. We’ve had a month of colder than usual weather interrupted only by a four day stint of hotter than usual days in the middle of May. Being one of best months for warm weather, May sure was a disappointment. And now June, notorious for windy conditions is upon us and it’s living up to its historical reputation. Here are a series of graphs I produced from our weather station located at our home in the Hallmark Area of Belmont which illustrate the last month’s weather pattern: This graph shows the highs and lows from May 4th to June 4th: Note if you click on any of these graphs you'll get a full size window view where you can actually read the data.                 In this picture I've added a RED high temperature line to illustrate the day's highs.               The Orange l... 06/04/2008

While reports of drastic median price drops continue in the media, isolated areas which are less impacted receive little or no attention. At some point the news should be about areas that are not impacted-why are prices holding up so well when other areas are suffering the greatest set back in years. But those turning to the mass media are clearly missing the whole story. This week, on June 1st, the Open Homes Guide section of the Sunday edition of the San Francisco Chronicle ran the home price closings-for April! Forget about the fact that they are typically 1 to 1.5 months behind the market, they dutifully report the numbers without analysis or professional perspective. We've just completed the May housing report for Belmont and wihtout our in-depth analysis it would appear that Belmo... 06/03/2008

May home sales statistics for Belmont are in and while there are no real surprises, that may be the best news yet. ↑At 17, there were four fewer Belmont home sales in May than April. Year over year (adjusted for seasonal selling patterns) there is no change over 2007. In 2006 there were 21 sales in May and at the height of the market in 2005 there were 29. Considering what the rest of the state is going through, we consider this a positive indicator for home values. ↓Of the 17 sales five homes sold over asking, one sold at the asking price and 11 sold under the seller's asking price. That's not as strong as last month where nine homes sold over and 10 sold under while two sold at asking price. ↗The average home which sold over asking sold for $61,000 over the seller's asking price in se... 06/03/2008

It hit me today that posting from my PDA would make good use of otherwise wasted downtime. Belmont's host to a few casual dining spots. Marvin Gardens has been one of my favorite haunts since I was in college. Locally famous for its Starvin Marvin hamburger--a 1/3rd pound burger on a artisian soft roll--they've added pizza andappetizers like chicken wings since the original days. Gone are the days of an all male crowd arriving solely on two wheeled vehicles and throwing peanut shells on the floor. Today, the more family friendly eatery offers a clean indoor or outdoor dining experience. Stop by and say hi to Jamie who bought the beer garden pub from Chip several years back. 1160 Old County Road, Belmont . 05/30/2008

It’s pretty exciting this time of year. Don’t you just love coming home to a full answering machine with voice mail messages from your representatives in government? I don’t know about you, but I feel pretty darn important when Bill Clinton calls and asks me to vote for his wife; or it’s Arnold Schwarzenegger himself calling to see if I’ll vote to be taxed a little more so he can balance the budget. This year it’s the year of the postcard. Funny too, since all of the candidates are claiming to be going “green” this year. Richard Holober’s postcard is not really a postcard at all. It’s an 8.5” x 11” glossy full page ad where he claims to be supported by the Sierra Club. I wonder how many trees the Sierra Club donated to his cause? At least one of his flyers appears to be printed on recyc... 05/30/2008

Belmont's Chamber of Commerce offers this special event calendar for Belmont: ~~~~~~~ Town Meeting at the Lodge   June 5th 7pm-8:30 Topic: Public Utility Commission     Any other Question Regarding Belmont? This is the Place Click here ~~~~~~~   Blood Drives Click here for more information...     June 7th December 13th   ~~~~~~~   Fenders & Fathers Car Show June 14 th This is a day for you to share your pride and joy. YES, signup to bring your vehicle - There will be judging of vehicles, people's choice, best of show, food, BBQ, Beer, wine, games for kids, jumpers, and Music.   Click Here for Flyer   ~~~~~~~     (Click above for Flyer) FREE!!! E-Waste: July 12th & 13th between 9:00 AM-3:00 PM The Belmont Chamber of Commerce and Carlmont Village Shopping Center are sponsoring E-Waste Rec... 05/21/2008

We thought this home was the best deal this week. It's in a great area of the Belmont hills on the west side. Carmelita is known for having a warm micro-climate. For $699,000 this price is hard to beat. It has a larger than normal rear yard which is level--a rare find in the Belmont hills. Call us at (650) 508-1441 or email dmorgan@morganhomes.com if you'd like to see this home! CARMELITA AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)$699,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s) DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 809521  Property Overview CARMELITA AV Belmont (Belmont) 94002 Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 2 / 1 SqFt: 1,020 Lot: 5,829 sq ft Age: 57 years Assoc Fee: List Price: $699,000 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: Remarks Wonderful quiet location; Darling home! Open, bright with walls of glass revealing qua... 05/21/2008

A week ago I posted a blog complaining about the relentless wind in Belmont over the past several weeks. This week we are enjoying record high temperatures not seen since 1970. Personally, I love the warm temperatures and slight breezes we get that take the edge off the heat. May 14th we had high clouds which made for a spectacular sunset—I think one of the best I have ever seen in Belmont. When the Peninsula gets weather like this I can think of no other place I’d rather be living. Nikon D70 Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR Date taken: May 14th 2008 Time: 20:24:25 f/4.5      1/8 exposure     ISO 200                Handheld  40mm focal length Nikon D70 Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR Date taken: May 14th 2008 Time: 20:19:35 f/5.6      1/20 exposure   ISO 200                Handheld  200mm foca... 05/15/2008