Which end is up? or Understanding Our Housing MarketPart 1 of a 2 part series"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"-- Mark Twain quotation after hearing that his obituary had been published in the New York Journal.The same might be true for the real estate market in the Bay Area. While everyday there's some piece of news about the Bay Area's real Estate market, many of it is focused to capture your attention in a sensational way and does little to offer insight and discussion.Since no two markets are identical it's difficult to say where this one will end up. But the relentless news stories about the mortgage industry melt-down and sub-prime loan mess has got even the most bullish investors nervous.Clearly there will be a shake out (which is already occurring). Many areas of the ... 09/21/2007

The Writing was on the WallAddendum to Part 1 of a 2 part series--"Which End is Up" or Understanding Our Housing Market"Historically low interest rates, low cost housing availability across the country, investors hungry to reap a return after the dot com crash all set the stage for an overactive interest in housing as an investment. There are really three distinct factors which played into the current market conditions across the county. The first is the sub-prime market. Essentially, these are loans which are made to folks who otherwise could not qualify for an "A" paper loan-usually that means low credit scores. Anyone with even the foggiest crystal ball could foresee that giving loans to people with bad credit is risky. The second major players were investors. Aggressively seeking an... 09/21/2007

Part II of a Two Part seriesPart 1 "Which End Is Up" or "Understanding Our Housing Market"Opportunities in an Emerging MarketThere are always opportunities in any market. As in the stock market where you can profit on a given stock whether it is going up or down depending on the position you hold, real estate also has it's opportunities in a changing market.It has been a seller's market for years. So where are all the buyers now? Clearly the interest rates have increased making homeownership more expensive, but that can't account for the current market pull back we're experiencing. Certainly some buyers are playing a game of wait-and-see with the home values and others the same game with interest rates.Smart investors usually buy and sell when no one else is. We've devoted a lot of time... 09/21/2007

Agent Exodus in Real EstateThis is an interesting article from the New York Times about agents getting out of the real estate business. Sorry, but I got in the business in 1990 when it was waning and made it through the tough times for the next five years. If these agents aren't committed to making real estate a career and were only in it for the fast bucks--well, bye then.I've seen plenty of new agents coming along without the commitment and drive necessary to take this industry and their business (and mine) seriously. In fact, they've dragged our existing business down with less than professional behavior. (Call first then key safe what does that mean?)And this article quotes none other than the owner of that company in Seattle, He is quoted, "Some who want to stay in the business are... 09/19/2007

We launched our own local blog for Belmont, California. We live in a small town (relatively in the bay area) of 25,000 people. Starting our own local blog seemed like a great way to give back to the community and increase our local exposure at the same time. I listened to a recent interview about blogs on Inman News and decided the time is right for a local blog to focus on issues which impact our town. Check out our new Beautiful Mountain Blog and let us know what you think.Cheers, Drew & Christine Morgan, MorganHomes.com 09/19/2007

The graph below is for San Mateo County, California. Notice how steep the trend-line is for this year as compared to 2004. The trend line used is a straight line computation in which the trend illustrated is based upon the previous data points. Of course this predicted outcome can change radically as market conditions change and in fact we would expect that this level of appreciation (given the current issues in the mortgage industry) is not sustainable and in fact it may be the result of more expensive homes selling in the two previous months--September data points should help level off this trend. 09/13/2007

We hear it all the time, the media reporting this or that about the housing market. Of course being in the industry makes us keenly aware of our markets-regardless of what the media puts forth. Notice how slow the mainstream media were to get a hold of the rise in mortgage defaults? The sub-prime mess only really made the headlines after the 10th largest lender in the country went belly up!  The media will argue all day long that they are simply reporting the facts but anyone who even possesses an iota of critical thinking capabilities realizes that they are less interested in information and more interested in sensationalism.Forget the reports--how about a quick thumbs up or down about your local market? Would you say the median price is up, flat, or down over the same time last year i... 09/13/2007

I have reviewed the August MLS statistics for Condominiums & Townhomes in Belmont, California. Please listen to my podcast to learn about the key trends and indicators in this area. If you have any questions about the market, feel free to give me a call at 408-829-4141 or e-mail JohnPinto@jvpinto.com Thank you, John V. Pinto 09/12/2007

I have reviewed the August MLS statistics for Single Family Homes in Belmont, California. Please listen to my podcast to learn about the key trends and indicators in this area. If you have any questions about the market, feel free to give me a call at 408-829-4141 or e-mail JohnPinto@jvpinto.com Thank you, John V. Pinto 09/12/2007

Belmont sits between San Mateo and San Carlos in the hills above El Camino Real.  It's the kind of town one either loves or hates because of it's unique homes.  They vary from small former summer cottages to huge mansions and these home can reside on the same street and block.  It's very rual in nature with loads of California oak tress and narrow roads running all over the hillsides. The median priced home in Belmont last week was $950,000.  The most expensive home on the market was listed at $1,888,000.  In Belmont it is still possible to find a resonablely priced home, for San Mateo County that is. The average days on the market is the lowest of any of the towns we cover, 38 days.  There were 47 homes for sale last week and Belmont is a Warm Seller's Market.  Homes sel... 09/04/2007

When is the Best time to sell a home? (Part five of five).If you've read parts one though four of our series, you undoubtedly know by now that there are many factors affecting the real estate market.Understanding your particular area's local market conditions and fluctuations will assist you in finding the best time for you to sell your home.In our home town of Belmont for example, just before spring, the winter inventory of homes for sale is typically low; but crescendos through spring into summer. Getting a jump of your competition can be rewarding. This is illustrated in the graph which shows the inventory levels at various times of the year.If conditions are right for buyers (i.e. job stability, favorable interest rates, etc.), then usually during this time of year demand for housin... 08/28/2007

With Indian summers blessing the Bay Area and Belmont in particular, great weather embraces us late into the fall buoying the house hunting season beyond traditional markets. After Labor Day, once the summer vacations are behind and children back in school, the market takes another bounce up as more inventory appears and buyers wishing to make a move before the end of the year are once again more focused. Notice how there's a summer "bounce" as market activity typical increases this time of year? 08/28/2007

It becomes pretty clear that historically, listing your home in late winter or early spring in the Bay Area will brings you the most market activity. Notice that the percentage a seller receives and the median home price is highest usually around June. Remember though-June sales were from homes listed in April and May.Most sellers do not want to sell their home during the holiday season. The market slow down generally starts around Thanksgiving and activity wanes though the end of December. This is usually the slowest time with few buyers focused on shopping for a home, and the sellers who are selling are usually ones who must sell (due to a job transfer in many cases). 08/28/2007

Agents-ever "Just Want to Get Away?"It rained that day, but that wasn't why I was reluctant to show property-the 49ers were playing. Being new to the business, I was determined to take my very first buyer out to see property regardless that my home team was playing and I had to forfeit my season pass seats; this was the first buyer I had the possibility of showing homes to and I was excited at the opportunities that awaited me; I was new. I was eager.The year was 1991. The 49ers were coming off several recent Superbowl wins and remained the talk of the town. If you were a buyer out during a Sunday game-you were a serious buyer, and agents knew it.The stores were quiet, the streets empty, and only the local pubs benefited from the excitement; nearby, a recent bride awaited anxiously in h... 08/24/2007

Our MLS system in Belmont (San Mateo) decided this year to disallow the practice of re-listing a home (effectively re-setting the DOM stat) since consumers thought it was a deceptive practice-and to some degree I suppose some agents employed this practice inappropriately.One of the first questions we receive at an open house from prospective buyers is how long a home has been on the market; and of course we tell them from the date it was originally listed; and we also tell them how long it has been on the market after any price reductions. Home buyers judge in our area if a home is overpriced if it's still on the market after 21 days. Clearly more and more buyers are relying on this statistic and the Internet for information to help them in buying a home.When the MLS systems decided to ... 08/22/2007

I have reviewed the July MLS statistics for Single Family Homes in Belmont, California. Please listen to my podcast to learn about the key trends and indicators in this area. If you have any questions about the market, feel free to give me a call at 408-829-4141 or e-mail JohnPinto@jvpinto.com Thank you, John V. Pinto 08/22/2007

I have reviewed the July MLS statistics for Condominiums & Townhomes in Belmont, California. Please listen to my podcast to learn about the key trends and indicators in this area. If you have any questions about the market, feel free to give me a call at 408-829-4141 or e-mail JohnPinto@jvpinto.com Thank you, John V. Pinto 08/22/2007

The City Council of Belmont is getting ready to pass a law outlawing smoking on city streets, public parks, apartments, condos and townhouses.  If you are a smoker and can't afford to buy a single family house, do not move to Belmont.  I can understand how obnoxious second hand smoke can be.  I remember having to deal with it in an apartment house I lived in many years ago with a next door neighbor who dearly loved is cigars.  I did not love them and especially hated smelling his stinky cigar smoke intruding into my apartment next door.  But, I wonder whether this kind of ordinance or law is legal.  If you bought your home, whether it was a house or condo or townhouse you are entitled to enjoy it and do what you wish within your home.  Your home is your castle, right?  Possibly no longe... 08/18/2007

In part four of our five part series on "When is the Best Time to Sell A Home" we examine some of the broader national issues which affect the overall atmosphere of home buying and selling.JobsWhen people feel secure about their jobs they are willing to take on more debt. But that's not the whole story. When more jobs are being created (and filled) in an area than are exiting, and the supply of available homes can no longer keep up with demand, there's competition for housing. A good indicator of where your local housing market may be headed is watching the number of net jobs increase or decrease; not just employment data. In other words, after all is said and done are there more jobs entering your area than leaving? And what kinds of jobs are being created? Those of high salaried profe... 08/18/2007

Real estate is best examined on a local scale since a rapid sell-off in south Florida, or falling values in San Diego can have little bearing on what a home is worth at any given point in your neighborhood.Although it is best to focus on your local area, keeping an eye on the big picture is prudent.In part two of our five part series on "When is the Best Time to Sell A Home" we examine some of the broader national issues which affect the overall atmosphere of home buying and selling.Interest Rates and the Availability of Mortgage MoneyTo begin to address these issues is rather redundant since the current issues facing the mortgage industry are changing everyday and are covered well enough by experts-for many-the writing was on the wall. Suffice to say though that when money is more expe... 08/18/2007