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Rainmaker
1,072,309
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty Evolution - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Have no idea. I think we're in for a challenging 4th of 2022 quarter and 1st & 2nd quarters for 2023. Now that I've said that we will have a smoking 3 quarters...lol. I think rates will rise to 8.5% - 9%. Markets go up and markets go down. The same is true for interest rates. The good news is, people buy and sell real estate in all sorts of market conditions.

Oct 31, 2022 11:15 AM
Ambassador
3,177,440
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

I would like to answer this question after the upcoming election results are in! My take is that things will get better or much worse depending on the election results.  

Oct 31, 2022 11:09 AM
Ambassador
443,854
Emily Medvec
eXp Realty LLC - Santa Fe, NM
Broker | Realtor | Serving Santa Fe & Northern NM

Great question for all of us. Frankly, I think what the institutional investors and renters do next will determine more about inventory than the typical seller or homebuilders. If both sellers and renters remain in a stuck mindset and rents begin to fall, then investors will sell. I have no crystal ball. I watch the numbers, supply chain issues and reports from homebuilders, MBA and NAR. I think it may take 1 to 2 more years before this current situation of rates and low inventory adjust into a new stability. As for my buyers and sellers, my focus is finding a real estate solution for them today...not in the future. 

Oct 31, 2022 10:58 AM
Rainer
318,448
Don Baker
Lane Realty - Eatonton, GA
Lake Sinclair Specialist

NEVER

Oct 31, 2022 02:34 PM
Rainmaker
826,936
Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
Carolina Life RealEstate & Relocation 919-602-8489

Our inventory is still fairly low at 1.5-2.5 months. Who knows about mortgage rates? I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to find out.

Oct 31, 2022 11:58 AM
Rainmaker
920,228
Annette Lawrence , Palm Harbor, FL 727-420-4041
ReMax Realtec Group - Palm Harbor, FL
Making FLORIDA Real Estate EZ

Normal typically means 6 month inventory. I don't see that happening in Florida for years. further, interest rates will fix at around 4%. That gives the FEDs some room to mess with the economy.
What I am seeing is mega-plexes of apartments being built.
What I am seeing is investment groups buying executive homes to put into the rental pool.
As America becomes a nation of renters the definition of wealth and even middle-class will need to change.

Oct 31, 2022 11:09 AM
Rainer
162,047
Karen Climer
Demetree School of Real Estate - Orlando, FL
Teaching people to pass the real estate exam

It seems like somebody asks a variation of this question once a week.

Oct 31, 2022 10:51 AM
Ambassador
2,825,107
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate Brokered by Real - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

No crystal ball here, Philip. I pay attention to trends and subtle changes in the real estate market and rely on reliable data to help buyer and seller clients!

Oct 31, 2022 12:36 PM
Rainmaker
7,145,001
Roy Kelley
Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

Time will tell. We have an inventory shortage in our area. Don't expect low interest rates for a long time. 

Oct 31, 2022 12:14 PM
Rainmaker
601,876
Hella M. Rothwell, Broker/Realtor®
Carmel by the Sea, CA
Rothwell Realty Inc. CA#01968433 Carmel-by-the-Sea

You gotta love real estate.  I got into the business in 2006 and the market crashed spectacularly.  From then, it's been a roller coaster and, it seems, something we didn't expect always comes next.  And through it all, I've seen buyers waiting on the fence for something that will be more advantageous to them.  If they need to get a loan, bet they now wish they had bought when interest rates were around 2%.  Will it come back down to that?  Highly unlikely with what we know now. As to current sellers, and getting the inventory up? With prices going back down, what is the incentive for the seller?

Oct 31, 2022 11:58 AM
Rainmaker
4,586,936
Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Based on your question, I'm assuming you believe a buyer's market is a "normal" market. Not sure I would agree... in the Charlotte metro area it's been almost 10 years since we had 7 months of inventory.  We are still at only about 1.4 months and new listings have dropped for four consecutive months. It could be a long time before we see a balanced market at 4 months. At the end of the day, how does one define a "normal" market?

 

Oct 31, 2022 11:00 AM
Rainmaker
4,645,724
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

My crystal ball is broken as to when and what is normal these days. As for rates in the 4 to 5% range, that is wishful thinking!

Nov 01, 2022 04:32 AM
Ambassador
5,838,408
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

I have been enjoying the Normal market that we have had for the past 5 years.

Nov 01, 2022 02:29 AM
Rainmaker
1,440,731
Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

I try not to prognosticate, since there are so many factors.  As my mentor, The Magic 8 Ball, once told me "Reply Hazy, Try Again."

There is just too many unknowns.  Fuel issues, hyper inflation/stagflation, the recession we've been in for several months now, multiple potential major wars (China, Ukraine), the election, laws and rules that sound good to voters but in reality make our problems worse, high unemployment and many needing to take second jobs to feed their families (making them 3-4 income homes).

 

I don't see the national housing supply tripling (3x) to increasing six-fold in the next 6-7 months, which is what it would take to get us back to a balanced market, unless there was a major external factor (such as multiple large companies leaving and taking their employees with them), but that would only impact specific regions.

Rates will come down.  Some people with much, much, much bigger brains for this stuff than I think we'll be back in the 5% range within 2 years, maybe a lot sooner.  You can only lower the rates so much to stimulate the economy before you're in negative territory like Greece and Japan were, and that doesn't do your country any favors since banks lend depositor money (which is how they get the money to pay the joke that is the 1%-2% bank interest rate).  They have to raise it so they can drop it when needed.

Oct 31, 2022 09:40 PM
Rainmaker
855,372
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

There may be a new "normal", who knows? Rates will come down, but not too soon. I know that's not a real answer, but that's because no-one knows the answer. 

Oct 31, 2022 12:54 PM
Rainmaker
2,702,045
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Probably reach 5% middle of 2023 noting that a significant part of the Real Estate industry is being affected. For location-based homes (coveted), they will continue to hold their value and be in demand. For inventory in general, perhaps back down to 2-3 months' supply. Keep an eye on new construction sales which are very telling. First time buyer and trade-up market makes itself known in that arena. One thing though, those mega-equity rich owner/sellers are seeing the safest place for their money as well as their heirs is in Real Estate. A percentage of those will sit tight & wait

Oct 31, 2022 10:15 AM
Ambassador
4,643,998
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

The Charlotte Metro has years to go in my estimation but, then again, I am not qualified to 'predict' our market...just giving you my hypothetical crystal ball opinion!

Oct 31, 2022 06:58 PM
Rainmaker
709,627
Tony Lewis
Summit Real Estate Group - Valencia, CA
Summit Real Estate Group Valencia & Aliso Viejo

Inventories are growing as sales decline.  I would guess that in December there will be a lag that leads to 6 - 7 months on the market rate.  Interest rates should come down after the first of the year especially if Congress changes hands.

Nov 02, 2022 04:21 PM
Rainmaker
100,676
Philip A. Raices
Turn Key Real Estate - Great Neck, NY
1 of the Most Knowledgeable Brokers on the Net!

I want to thank everyone for their "guestimate" as to the future of inventory.  Reading other opinions online, as long as demand is greater than supply then the current market just may be our new norm; but we'll see what changes occur over the next 6-12 months.  As far as interest rates, if they don't lower them over the long run, our economy will surely suffer; but how much lower is the real unknown.  The Fed has to tread lightly, but not sure if they know what that means after today's 3/4% increase. I am not sure inflation is as high now as it has been, but housing and energy are still up there as well as food. Job creation is still higher than the Fed wants so we'll see what they propose in December.

Nov 02, 2022 12:26 PM