For those questioning the data, the above charts are sourced from St. Louis Fed.
It would appear that median days on market for US has been above 45 days prior to March 2021.
30 year fixed mortgage rates have been above 4.0 as recently as May 2019 since we're looking prior to the recent spike.

I'm skeptical that 91% of all agents have been licensed 3 years or less. 
In my own office, only 3 of the 18 agents are licensed later than 2019. 
A local brokerage that tends to have more agents just starting out has 7 out of 34 that started 2019 or later.

I don't have any reason to think Cincinnati agent stats are widely out of touch with the rest of the country.

Where oh where did you get those stats?

In any event, I do believe we will see many agents looking for a JOB!

Don't believe it, no references to your claim.

Not sure about 91% but every cycle, especially when losing momentum by trending down, sends agents off to find other ways to gain an income.

There will be a great shaking out

Flash back to 1987.  We thought it was a good deal to buy homes under 10% and some agents made it, some did not.  I've seen agents come and go for many years and for many reasons.  When those agents that don't 'make it' leave it's because they most likely did not treat it as a real business that needed to be built up. The 'ole it's easy money' theory doesn't hold up. The rest of us did hold up in any market condition because we built a sustainable business.  I think your stated number is  high....but who knows, I don't keep track of that stat.

Google Search for "91% of Agents have never SOLD Real Estate when the Interest Rates are over 4% and days on the Market were over 45 days

A long list, NONE of which include '91%' a figure that seems high.

Do I believe that a huge number of agents today have never known 7% interest rates? ABSOLUTELY. The last 2 booms had < 5% interest rates and < 45 DOM.

A friend who sells lots of homes is panicking that their 'perfectly market ready' 'only listing active in the subdv' 'lots of showings' has not sold in 90 days . . . I am not kidding when I say "Mercury RX" but it is definitely an anomaly given the recent market! 

Which is correcting . . . and many agents will be back to Walmart doing hair or cocktailing at Loser's Lounge (a real bar at the Riverside Resort) LOL

What do you have to support the 91% figure? 

Although 87.24% of all statistics are fabricated (I made up that number, haha), I do believe there will be a strong shakeup in both the real estate & mortgage industries. It appears inevitable that the majority of industry professionals will need to have a "side hustle" to make ends meet financially.

William, I agree that many agents are in new territory with DOM and rates substantially over 4%. So are Sellers and Buyers. And many Buyers have left the market not by choice. As for agents, I hear retirement chatter, getting a "job" talk BUT time will tell when MLS dues come due.

Got short sale contacts and tools rocking, check.

Got broom, shovel, and how to lists printed up, check.

Data lists and walking shoes in my car.

knowing that historically speaking that 80 percent of new agents are out of the business within 2 years and has been a steady statistic since I have been licensed over 40 years ago, and seeing the increased number of agents the last couple of years, I would not be surprised to see a slightly greater percentage than 80 percent the next couple of years. How hard can it be? Harder than most people can imagine.

"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert Schuller

And why is this surprising William? Without doing any research it's probably been 10 years since rates have been this high and few agents last this long. As far as agents leaving the market a huge share flush out their 1st year.

I don't believe that statistic, as DOM has been over 45 days in recent history and rates were also above 4% in recent history.  

The industry will see some attrition, but with 401ks shrinking and recession pending, I actually see a lot of older agents with plans to continue working when they were considering retirement a year ago.  

Some attrition would be great for the real estate and lending industries, we almost saw a wave of attrition 2018-2019 with rates spiking and inventory dwindled (sound familiar?) but rate dips bailed everyone out.  I actually expect a repeat of this with the Fed driving us into recession and rates coming down again.

bye bye, so long & farewell as you find what works and what doesn't for you

Well I'd say it's closer to 40% in my market that fit into that category.  Where did you get the data?

In any market, no matter what the interest rate or days on market, there will be agents that don't make it.  there is always a revolving door of agents getting into the business and leaving.

Around here, there are such a variety of homes, Days on Market is just something to look at, but many times means nothing. Many new agents drop out in first year or two for reasons that have nothing to do with how much money they made, or how many days a property was on the market.

Figured as much.  Agent ranks swell when the going is easy and collapse when it is not.  Seen it several times before.  Same thing with companies.  Many form, "disruptors" emerge and many fail just like they're doing now.  Inman, Bloomberg, the WSJ and several others have commented about companies of late that are on life support and others that have already closed down.

I'm curious as to where that statistic came from, but I also think there will be a great shaking out of agents as rates rise.  I understand it is already happening in the loan industry.

Many agents leaving the market is a good thing in my opinion.  Aggressive markets get flooded with bad agents and it is not fun having to deal with them.

Surprising number. I have been in real estate when rates were approaching 20% and people were still buying and selling. The strong will survive and the weak will perish!

When we go through a market such as the market we are now transitioning out of, the general public thinks that being a real estate agent is easy peasy and agent numbers swell. Going into and working in the market as it is now becoming, agents must work for a living, prove their work and numbers will decline because of the may who will not be able to meet the challenge.

I would like to know the source of that statistic.  It doesn't ring true with me.

Edit: I tracked down the source of the quote to Nick Bailey CEO/President of Re/Max, but I haven't found where he gets his data from.

It is a crazy thought, however just reading the advice people post online is head scratching and it shows. AT one time 7% was considered a good rate. Rates bounced up to 18% a while back in my early days. 

We are in for an adjustment, shakeup, rebalancing and only time will tell how significant the change will go. 

While that number may be high, we will most definitely see agents leave this business... And many of them should! Buh Bye now!! 

This sounds a bit high...but believe that it's likely enough to give a reasonable idea of the general trend. That said- it's not always relevant. I spent 16 years on Wall Street prior to becoming a real estate agent, and I was well accustomed to the up's and down's before entering the business. 

Not a chance is that accurate.  It's only been two years in GA since we had an average of 45 days on the market and our agents active average 14 years in the business.

For a decent agent this wont make much of a difference.

Those agents who will leave the business, they probably weren't doing much business anyway.

I haven't heard that and it doesn't make much sense since the top performers have been around for a decade or more and they do 80% of the business.

I am sure there are some that have not, but 91% doesn't sound like a realistic number.

There will definitely be a shaking in the real estate market and with that will come those who are not willing to work that hard.  But for those of us who have stayed true to our profession through good and bad, we will continue and as they newbies leave -- it just makes more room for us to thrive! IMHO

It don't surprise me in the least.  Let's shake that tree.

And I should care about this, why?

That is interesting, but I'd like to know the source of that information. 

I didn’t hear that but it isn’t surprising.

I agree. I am seeing it with my agents. They don't know how to operate with rates in the 5-6-7%. Agents think the sky is falling... 

Once again, the serious agent will survive and the newer agents will have to find other sources of income. 

Nancy Bergman

Pearson and Associates Real Estate Team / Realty Path 

Salt Lake City