Admin
Philip A. Raices, 1 of the Most Knowledgeable Brokers on the Net! (Turn Key Real Estate)

Spam prevention
Ambassador
3,375,554
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate Services

I guess that you did not hear that the current administration has redefined "recession" ... it no longer means 2 quarters of negative growth. 

This is either fake news, misinformation, or disinformation. 

My two cents - we are in for one wild ride.  It will take a long time (no telling how long) to correct the damage being done to our country. 

Jul 26, 2022 07:44 AM
Rainmaker
1,518,973
Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

We've been in an economic depression ever since we shut down the strongest economy in recorded history because of a flu with a 99.86% survival rate.

Jul 26, 2022 09:05 AM
Rainmaker
1,075,789
Candice A. Donofrio
Next Wave RE Investments LLC Bullhead City AZ Commercial RE Broker - Fort Mohave, AZ
928-201-4BHC (4242) call/text

🔮 says 'better not tell you till after the midterms' LOL

THE GREAT FAKEOUT will remain for a while and if we could only PPV the demise of sooooo many grifters . . . it would wipe out the national debts of many countries. Fortunately, many of them are old enough to stare down their mortality. 

Turn off the news and turn on your brains . . . you are right. Opportunities will abound for those with vision and COMMON SENSE.

Jul 26, 2022 08:27 AM
Rainmaker
660,091
Greg Large
ERA Real Solutions - Grove City, OH
A Tradition of Trust

I do not agree with the description as "slight". No soft landing in sight when the people in charge of correcting it are in denial we are in a recession and without acknowledging this was entirely predictable and caused by their actions.

Jul 26, 2022 07:57 AM
Ambassador
3,197,713
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate (435) 632-9374 - St. George, UT
The best agent in Southern Utah!

There is nothing slight about what is happening right now and no soft landings, Philip. Though gas prices have been reduced a small amount, it does not equate to the highest amount charged and food costs are outrageous! Russia and China are playing chess and the U.S. is on the sidelines in a losing strategy.

Jul 26, 2022 09:12 AM
Ambassador
1,083,622
John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, IN, MD, MN, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

Since the Fed has said they expect a soft landing, and they've been wrong about literally everything, I think we'll see a very hard landing.

My opinion despite just being contrarian:  We had the longest ever bull market and many, many companies hired and functioned while losing other people's cheap money.  Now money is more expensive and less available, there has to be a reckoning.  Inflation is still too high, and the covid response by the Biden administration handcuffed our economy with far too much spending and little attention to keeping the economy on track (aka allowing businesses to do business).

I think we've still got a ways to go down - the Fed JUST started to tighten things up, if they follow through with the 1.75 bump to rates they planned through the end of the year, things will be very rocky, especially once the jobs numbers start to get ugly.

Jul 26, 2022 08:54 AM
Rainmaker
1,220,618
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

I don't really know since the economy is manipulated by a handful of master manipulators. I think we should watch what's happening around the world to see if alliances are being made to replace the dollar as the reserve currency.

Jul 26, 2022 07:43 AM
Rainmaker
949,558
Bruce Walter
Keller Williams Realty Lafayette/West Lafayette, Indiana - West Lafayette, IN

Hi Philip,

In the short term I don't see much changing concerning inflation, or a very deep recession as the Fed does not seem to have the appetite to raise the Fed Funds/Discount Rate steeply to approach the rate of inflation.  The Fed has also been reluctant to use their Open Market Operations to aggressively sell a good chunk of the  almost $9 trillion of government bonds they have on their balance sheet, thus sucking money out of the economy to reduce the inflation rate.  I believe the inflation rate will remain a problem as long as the current administration keeps its current energy policy.

My concern is if the Congress does manage to repeal the Trump tax rate reductions and raise taxes before the election  that could trigger a steep economic slowdown coupled with the high inflation.   I think the only reason the economy isn't in a shambles is that many of the Dems in Congress know that the tax rate reductions in late 2017 has brought more money into American households and that is why the economy took off in 2018 and 2019 along with real wages.  

I just feel for the working families that have to commute 20-40 miles a day (one way) to the factories in Lafayette with the high fuel prices and for our area farmers as diesel is off the charts!  Money is tight in working class budgets, and choices are being made with their spending that will take months to show up in the broader economy that eventually leads to layoffs and higher unemployment.

We will get through this.  

 

 

Jul 26, 2022 12:07 PM
Rainmaker
924,314
Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
NC Real Estate Transition & Relocation 919-602-848

It is too soon to say. We're in a place we've never been before. I do think we're in a recession already. Will there be a soft landing? Who knows. I think it will be a bit bumpy and unpredictable. The current administration has a lot of work to do to improve their standing before mid-terms and the 2024 election. So, I think there will be some ups and downs. 

Jul 26, 2022 08:46 AM
Rainmaker
1,578,924
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
Serving Coastal San Diego, Veteran's & Seniors

We REALTORS* have conquered recessions, The Crash, The Pandemic, raging bull markets and a few angry bear markets... and I'm sure we've all weathered health issues and life problems during our careers too...

They can no longer throw anything at us we can't handle; stay the course and keep the faith, this too will become part of our resume's.

Jul 26, 2022 02:24 PM
Rainmaker
733,900
Lynnea Miller
Bend Premier Real Estate - Bend, OR
Premier Real Estate Service in Central Oregon

I believe we are in a recession - but how long this lasts will be dependent upon who gets elected and the policies enacted.  When Reagan was elected, inflation was pretty bad.  It required raising interest rates way up to get a handle on it - that and reducing regulations which spurred economic growth. Our current administration doesn't seem capable of doing this.  Who is really making the decisions?  I wish I knew.

Jul 26, 2022 09:55 AM
Rainmaker
5,052,773
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

I have not heard of companies layoff people in the Denver area, but sure it will happen if we do not have a correction in the ways things are done and now.

 

Jul 26, 2022 08:45 AM
Ambassador
5,347,660
Debe Maxwell, CRS
Savvy + Company (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The RIGHT CHARLOTTE REALTOR!

I don't believe it's slight, nor do I believe we will land softly, Philip. It's a lot messier than we are being led to believe and with Biden at the helm, I have no confidence at all through 2024. 

HOWEVER, like The Great Recession and the beginning of the pandemic and every other market shift in between, people will continue to need a place to live and we will continue selling houses through this recession as well.

Jul 26, 2022 06:50 PM
Rainmaker
2,804,206
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

I have noticed that everything in life gets a turn. The up and the down, the good and the bad, gain and loss, abundance and prosperity etc. Somehow, the scales of whatever is at work balance out. The trick is to observe and not react, to literally mind/mine our own business & wait for: This too shall pass

Jul 26, 2022 10:34 AM
Rainmaker
1,241,749
Peter Mohylsky, Beach Broker
PMI. Destin - Miramar Beach, FL
Call me at 850-517-7098

I don't think this will turn into a full blown.  Inflation is more of a problem at this point in time.  so hold on,

Jul 26, 2022 08:39 AM
Rainmaker
5,338,162
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Oswego, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

We are in for a prolonged uncertainty. There is a difference between theoretical thinking and practical commonsense. And, at present the pendulum is in theoretical territory and not in reality.

Jul 27, 2022 04:31 AM
Rainmaker
1,101,127
Diana Zaccaro Broker Associate
ZOOM Realty Group - Cocoa Beach, FL
"The Accidental Blogger" Cocoa Beach, Florida

I hate to sound negative but I think things will get much worse before they start to get better. No one in the current administration seems to want to take ownership of this and do what is needed to reverse the damage that is being done. The outcome of the mid-terms will probably shed some light on how this will play out but the real turning point will be the 2024 election. I hope we can all hold out that long. 

 

Jul 26, 2022 07:21 PM
Rainmaker
140,085
Philip A. Raices
Turn Key Real Estate - Great Neck, NY
1 of the Most Knowledgeable Brokers on the Net!

I want to thank everyone for the comments concerning our inflation.  we all had an opinion but only time will tell as to the eventual outcome.  Unfortunately, our gov't is afraid to tell us the real truth as we will stop spending which is 70% of our economy, so they are forced not to tell us what is really going on, so it's a 2 edged sword, dammed if you do dammed if you don't!

Aug 22, 2022 09:58 AM
Rainmaker
2,438,077
Bob "RealMan" Timm
Ward County Notary Services - Minot, ND
Owner of Ward Co Notary Services retired RE Broker

IT WILL CRASH in my humble opinion Philip A. Raices . The printing of trillions of dollars with nothing to back it up will result in runaway inflation and heavy taxes. It may not hit hard for two or three years which will make it convenient for those who caused it to blame someone else.

Jul 29, 2022 07:24 AM
Rainmaker
773,739
Tony Lewis
Summit Real Estate Group - Valencia, CA
Summit Real Estate Group Valencia & Aliso Viejo

We are heading into a bipolar economy in which the poor get poorer and the rich don't even know that there's a downturn.

Jul 27, 2022 10:35 PM
Rainmaker
908,813
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

Too many variables that might turn into surprises.

Jul 27, 2022 11:56 AM
Ambassador
6,525,205
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

Most of this issue exists in the writers toolbox as fox.

There are still many more jobs out there than there are workers, and any slowdown is intentional in an effort to curb inflation.

Jul 26, 2022 10:22 PM