I DO believe we are headed for a nation wide recession Miriam Odegard BUT I am unsure as to how it will affect the housing market. That being said it may crush some landlords as they may not be able to evict tenants who can not afford to move.

This reminds me of the talking heads before a big sporting event. They spend a week saying what they think will happen. Then the event takes place. Then they spend more time talking about what happened, which usually isn't anywhere near what they said was going to happen.

Yesterday, Dr. Paula McDonald wrote a wonderful article about Preparing For Impact.  Regardless of where we are in life or business, we must always be prepared and adapt as necessary.

I believe we are headed for the full-on destruction of America as we have known it and lived it for as long as I have been alive.

I agree with Tammy Lankford, we are where we are because the so-called leaders have their own agenda.  I am hopeful we can turn things around before it is too late. 

I stopped reading the headlines.  But I don’t think there will be melt down. What do you think

Darn! I asked the Magic 8 Ball to predict the coming economic status and it tweeted out something about Elon Musk.

Beyond my ken.

Chicken Little has been telegraphing the falling of the sky on a fairly regular basis.

Real Estate, along with almost every other enterprise, is cyclical, and as such will have cycles of up, and cycles of down.  Since we are in the midst of a serious upcycle, it stands to reason that at some point we will be experiencing a downcycle.

When we had our last market 'crash', they had been screaming "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" for about half a dozen years.  It will surely happen, but ain't nobody got a functioning ball of crystal.

I really dont know what will happen, however I am confident that I will prosper either way.

We are headed toward a recession - that's not disputed.  If the economy is going down at all, we are headed toward a recession.  That doesn't mean we will have a recession.  Just like I can be headed toward the ocean, but that just means my car is headed either east or west (in Florida).  It doesn't mean I'm going to drive into the ocean.

It is the job of the newspaper to sell newspapers or get people to click on articles that sell ads.  If predicting the future in a hyperbolic way is what helps them accomplish that, that's what they will do.  This is not a criticism of the newspaper or any media outlet.  It is just pointing out that they have financial incentives for saying what they say. 

Real estate agents also have financial incentives for saying what we say, so this is not unique to the newspaper.

I've been saying this for a couple years now . . . unrestrained growth is unsustainable . . . it's been a very unusual circumstance but we're probably in our last year of residential boom. Local lenders are already telling me the phones are quieting down . . . our area is resort/vacation so it does not compare to other areas but this is our 'hot season' so those lender phones should still be ringing till after Fourth of July!

Real estate agents LOVE to wax Pollyanna-ish about the market being eternally great. 

My favorite nonsense was the president of a large R Association down south, at a leadership conference raising his arms to the sky like Moses and declaring 'THERE IS NO BUBBLE" in Fall of 2005. I laughed out loud! Markets are ALWAYS cyclical. 

This market will correct too. 

I think the elected leaders in this country, and those in their employee past and present don't give a rats behind about anyone but themselves.  They did nothing to prevent a recession before it was too late.  But I've seen this coming and I'm fairly well prepared.

Media blather...

Yes, but not so soon and real estate is notoriously cyclical.

Only time will tell. There are many variations of what will happen. Some people will be right and some won't. I'm preparing just in case.

The headlines are usually behind the curve.  We're already IN a recession, if not a depression.  We've got poor job numbers and record high inflation... maybe even stagflation.

Could be if inflation conditions and then most people will no longer be able to purchase. But supply and demand is going strong at this time. 

But like the Stock Market, we are due for a Market Correction! LOL

I don't think it will be a meltdown.  A slowdown perhaps.  The last meltdown occurred because of 100% financing on Owner occupied homes that weren't owner occupied and stated income which was never verified.  Too many people just walked away.  Nowadays, one must actually have money to buy a home...

I don't believe much of what the talking heads are touting. YET, we ARE in a recession and housing will go through a cyclical change

Sensationalism by the talking heads. 

Richie's got a great answer. No inventory to sell, just like car companies, just like grocery stores.

Is that a recession?

Sales are up from last year and the year before that and are expected to continue next year too. Why? Inventory! Lack of product. High interest rates won't stop the stampede either. Why? People will refi when they can. Current owners/sellers have monster equity gains harassing them. Dreams stirring

It's NOT a headline, it's the numbers that say we're recession bound.

Times are bad, and getting worse.

  So what?   Pull up your pants, take a chance, step out into the world.  YOU CAN WIN!

If I lose my real estate business, it a MELTDOWN.
if you lose your real estate business it a market adjustment.
Recession, inflation, or Bank of America robbery, the real estate market continues.
I am seeing inflation and rising interest rates actually creating a TEMPORARY spike in activity.

We might, but housing market in Los Angeles hoods is steaming hot. Working with buyers is extremely challenging in this time of bidding wars. 

The headlines are right about the first part (I've been discussing this for months now), but they're wrong about the second.  Supply and demand is economics 101, and we're still very short on supply with no end to that in sight.  AT LEAST in most markets.  Some markets went up way too much, way too fast, and while I don't see a "meltdown" I do see values dropping in those places as they struggle to deal with infrastructure and quality of life issues amongst new residents.

Don't believe what you read! Just think of how accurate the news has been over the last few years. Terrible track record unless you rate the news on their self-professed rumors. Then they are off the charts. Remember, whether the market is up or down, get your share and move on!

Adjust your "sales" for whatever is happening in your LOCAL real estate market. Stay positive. There is always a market and people gotta buy, wanna sell. What are you telling your LOCAL audience Miriam Odegard ? 

Depends on what unreliable media outlet you happen to be listening to or reading. And cue the circus music please...🙈🙉🙊!

I am seeing our inventory go up, DOM have gone up and buyers are sitting on the fence and not wanting to bid over list as it's been for several years now. The talk I hear from just about everyone is gas prices, inflation, etc etc. Many folks are not happy with the direction the country is going in.  As for a recession we might be in one now but not know it till later. We'll see.  I doubt there will be a 'melt down' as many folks I know off have a LOT of equity in their homes unlike the crash of 2008.

As my buddy Jason E. Gordon and I discussed just last night, recessions are great for rates and supply & demand is currently great for us. There is a recession, but there was one in 2020 too and you'd never know it in real estate. No meltdown, just a correction. The rates drop every recession:

Do not think that will happen but you never know.  Great question.

The headlines I have read say the home values should increase by 6% during the coming year. That is definitely not a meltdown.

Headlines are click bait.  Real estate is local & I'm focusing on the data as well as reminding folks that such articles are not typically designed for positive reactions.  If we stay true to our roles of educating and guiding, all will be just fine. 

I do believe we are already in it Miriam and it'll be around for several years. I have had to readjust my sights many times in this business and when we come out on the other side we dive straight back into it with vigor. Watch for the term Housing Shortage in future headlines as this too shall pass.

Look at history... housing markets have not melted down because there was a recession.

Hi Miriam,

I don't see The Fed aggressively attacking inflation like the way Paul Volker did in 1979 upon becoming head of The Fed.  Inflation was over 13% and the Fed Funds rate had creeped up to 12% with no impact on curbing inflation.  Volker raised the Fed Funds rate to an astonishing 18% punishing banks for over lending and sold government securities through Open Market Operations taking cash out of bank reserves, investors, institutions, and households which dried up the money supply in circulation.  This led quickly to a recession right after Reagan took office.  I just don't see the Fed doing that, nor do they have the stomach for it.

I do see certain industries targeted by the current administration by increasing government regulations and lawsuits.  This has led to a decreased supply and thus higher prices.  I don't see this changing in the near term. 

I do see consumer confidence going down and consumer spending in our area going down as fuel and food are sucking up a much greater part of the family budget.  We have thousands who live in small bedroom communities who drive 40-70 miles round trip every day to our major employers:  Purdue University, Subaru-Toyota, Caterpillar, Wabash National, etc.  It is brutal for them to fill up the gas tank as gas is now at a record high in Lafayette at $5.19 per gallon for regular unleaded.  So I am concerned about how this will impact potential buyers with the high coast of fuel and food which in  the short term appear to be heading higher.  It does seem that buyer activity has cooled down in our area.

I don't see a housing market meltdown at all in our area at all as inventory is still tight.  Employers still need workers but with the artificially induced wage hikes trying to compete with the COVID handouts to stay home minimum wage has effectively gone from $7 per hour to $12-$15 per hour thus imposing huge costs on employers to operate their businesses, and many have had to raise prices to stay in business adding to inflation.

I don't see the Fed stopping inflation by selling bonds and sucking money out of the economy as they have continually bought bonds, thus increasing the money supply, nor the US Congress cutting spending to reduce inflationary pressures and that is why I don't see a major recession or housing market meltdown. 

I think the economic slowdown is happening with some industries due to increased government regulations and consumers now worried about the economic future and they holding on to their hard earned money.  These factors, in my opinion, will slow down the economy to the point of a possible recession (two back to back quarters of negative economic growth) not from the actions of the Fed getting Volkeresque, or the Congress cutting spending in a Draconian manner.   

This is another one of the prediction I've been making and most everyone on this sight slams me down and has a great laugh at my expense.

we are in a recession already but that does not equate to a housing "meltdown"