John DL Arendsen, Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer (CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments)

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John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA
ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

A downward trend in what? Sales activity…sure. The price of homes in many parts of California has risen to the point where they are not affordable. Homes at the lower end of the market are selling more slowly because buyers are tired of getting beaten up. Prices are getting out of reach for many buyers. Sales at the upper end of the market are not impacted as much, so far. We know that the market will change. Change does not a bubble make. A pause…a correction…a softening…these things are not indicative of a bubble bursting. I do not expect a major price adjustment. Increasing prices will slow but not stop, IMO.

Jul 25, 2018 07:33 AM
Rainmaker
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Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

I don't believe we are in a bubble in my market. Prices are up only due to lack of inventory. It's not like 10 years ago when prices were going up and we had plenty of inventory.

Jul 25, 2018 07:33 AM
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Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

Okay, here's my theory - yes, LAST MONTH'S data was down 12% year-over-year. That doesn't terrify me - especially when summer months are typically down in sales.

That said, we have a VERY long way to go to even become a level market.  We are down into the 1-month supply range here and it's going to take a while to get to a 6-month supply. Then, we'll talk about a down-turn!

Jul 25, 2018 07:58 AM
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Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

I try not to concentrate on the things where I have no/little influence 

Jul 25, 2018 07:33 AM
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Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Property Manager

Hi John,
I think this will make "alternative" types of housing (such as what you are such a big proponent of) even more appealing. 

Jul 25, 2018 08:00 AM
Rainmaker
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Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Concentrate on things you can control, like prospecting every day for new business.

Jul 25, 2018 07:46 AM
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Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

John,

Michael Jacobs and I agree.  A

Jul 25, 2018 07:45 AM
Rainmaker
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Dan Tabit
Keller Williams Bellevue - Sammamish, WA

Someone somewhere is always predicting gloom & doom.  When something happens that is bad, they say "see I told you so".  In the mean time, most smart people are working hard, paying attention to changes and adjusting as we go and continuing to be successful. 

Jul 25, 2018 09:49 AM
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Sam Shueh
(408) 425-1601 - San Jose, CA
mba, cdpe, reopro, pe

It takes several factors to precipitate a bubble. In our area take San Jose, CA as an example home prices rose+19% in first 4 months of 2018. As soon as people who were on the edge jumped to sell mode, the price started leveling off -2%, -5% etc month. That does not mean there is a bubble. It just means it is another normal year. Until there are high tech layoffs the local strong economy holds up home prices. Big employers like Goog, FB, Ducu Sign, Drop Box, Amzn are unlikely to be affected by economy.  We got Intel, Tsla, 100 other established companies.  How about Real Estate sites? 

Jul 25, 2018 08:45 AM
Rainmaker
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Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

A bubble can either fueled by an act of God or an act of man. Both are absent at this time. That means an ordinary reset is due. It will still be a sellers market but not with vigor. People who bought within the last 2 years will see an equity dip and the market as a whole will take a long hiccup before stabilizing. 

Jul 25, 2018 08:08 AM
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Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
& Host of Postcards From Success Podcast

LOL, no bubble when supply & demand are driving the market; NOT BAD LOANS.

Jul 25, 2018 08:00 AM
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Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

I deal with each day as it unfolds.  My business was comprised of 100% short sales many years ago. If we see another cycle of that ... I'll be ready. 

Jul 25, 2018 07:52 AM
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William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

The bubble will occur only when people start to buy into that thought.

Jul 27, 2018 08:19 PM
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Jennifer Mackay
Counts Real Estate Group, Inc. - Panama City, FL
Your Bay County Florida Realtor 850.774.6582

Get rid of more of their current representatives and stop electing anti-americans to seats

That's the first step

Jul 26, 2018 06:31 AM
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Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

I'm not sure if we're headed for a crash, but I do see some difficulties ahead.

Jul 26, 2018 05:56 AM
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Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Andover, MA
Andover, MA: Andover Luxury Homes For Sale

Good answers here.

Jul 25, 2018 11:48 PM
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Debbie Reynolds, C21 Platinum Properties
Platinum Properties- (931)771-9070 - Clarksville, TN
The Dedicated Clarksville TN Realtor-(931)320-6730

Is it coming? I do see inventory increasing everywhere. The market is still strong though.

Jul 25, 2018 06:07 PM
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Susie Kay
Ultra Real Estate Dallas Fort Worth - Plano, TX
North Dallas Specialist

I'm seeing some market slowing down in my area BUT when I said slowing down that doesn't mean is it now the buyer's market and buyer can lowball offers. 

Jul 25, 2018 03:00 PM
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Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

I don't see this as a bubble. If the bubble taught us anything it is what can go up can go down. I think this is an issue of the affordibility index and rising interest rates and the market is doing a natural reset.

Jul 25, 2018 01:44 PM
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Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, EXP - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

I think we are in a market where quick flips will be better than buy and holds.

Jul 25, 2018 01:12 PM
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Lynnea Miller
Bend Premier Real Estate - Bend, OR
Premier Real Estate Service in Central Oregon

Historically real estate goes through price corrections every 7 years. We are due for this. Prices have gotten so high that few can afford to purchase and the price of  new construction land, development costs, materials and labor have pushed the price for new homes even higher.

Jul 25, 2018 12:34 PM
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Valeria Mola
SIB Realty - Miami, Sunny Isles Beach - Sunny Isles Beach, FL
305-607-0709 SIB Realty Condos for Sale and Rent

We are  slowly going to buyers market in our area.

Jul 25, 2018 12:26 PM
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John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, MD, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

Homes are overpriced and the buyers that could buy have bought.  The others are still saving down payment, dealing with high rents, or working on careers with more earnings.  SoCal is a market that has been too competitive with prices rising too sharply.  I've had several clients experience bidding wars on homes that just a few years ago nobody would want.  

Inventory is still the driving issue, with costs, permitting, and other regulations delaying much needed building - CA is a regulatory nightmare, so it's no surprise this has been an issue here.

Not to get political, but if the government in CA would get their shit together, the housing market could figure itself out as a free market should. 

 

But no warnings necessary --- a dip is due (greedy sellers and stupid buyers have done this to the market, to an extent).  I'm actually looking forward to the dip ----- with every heavy seller or buyers market, the disgusting side of the industry comes out to play.  Tough markets make the bad players go away.  

Jul 25, 2018 10:57 AM
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Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Retired - Franklin, MA
Previously Affiliated with The Todaro Team

we continue to see fresh listings in our inventory.... if the market tanks again, I think we're set up to weather the storm.... we have a new vein we just tapped into....  we work well together ..... that's our life saving ring.....

Jul 25, 2018 09:14 AM
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Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

Here is what I posted to a similar bubble question on Lab Coat Agents

 

Jul 25, 2018 08:47 AM
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Fred Griffin Florida Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

 CNBC Diana what's her name is not my go-to person for housing advice.  Just saying.

Jul 25, 2018 08:24 AM
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

We're starting to see lenders, buyers and investors doing a lot of crazy things that slightly resemble the crash of '08. I'm not suggesting there will be another crash like that John Juarez.

However, what we are seeing over and over again are folks borrowing against their equity, some several times over, and investing in the F&F market. Interestingly lenders are funding them. Sometimes on multiple occassions as long as there's equity in their homes.

I know of several folks that have done this repetitivly and are now sitting on multiple overpriced properties that are not moving all while their equity is not only tapped out on their own home but their investments are starting to nibble away at their staying power.

This is a different type of trend than the early 2000's when liars loans were flying off the shelves and if you could fog a mirror you could qualify for a loan.

Banks are all about making loans. That's how they make money. However, in that ambitious endeavor they too have temptations that can do them harm and bring harm to others at the end of the day.

My 3 $CENTS$; adjusted for inflation.

Jul 25, 2018 07:57 AM
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Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

Good luck.

Jul 25, 2018 07:34 AM
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Dave Martin (703) 585-4687
Fairfax Realty - Fairfax, VA
Making Realty Dreams a Reality #WeWillGetYouHome

Currently in our market in N. Virginia none of the typical signs of a Housing Bubble have occured at all as of now..Seller's Markets happen, Buyer's Markets happen...never get caught up in runaway frenzy type of buying or selling panic

Jul 30, 2018 03:53 PM
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Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Good thing to think about.

 

Jul 30, 2018 02:17 PM
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Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Had not heard you are having a bubble.

Jul 30, 2018 07:30 AM
Rainmaker
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Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Not ready to call it a bubble. Not seeing the right parameters for that at this time!

Jul 26, 2018 06:10 AM
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Gita Bantwal
RE/MAX Centre Realtors - Warwick, PA
REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel

Good luck.

Jul 25, 2018 10:28 AM