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Fred Griffin Florida Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

Hi, John.  

   Let me preface my comment by stating that I have No Party Affiliation.  I am neither Republican, nor Democrat, nor Libertarian, nor anything else.

   The "Real Government" is Big Pharma, the Federal Reserve, the Arms Industry, the Oil Companies, the Big Banks, the Insurance Companies, etc. etc.  The "Players" in Washington DC, be they Barack Hussein Obama, or John Boehner, or Hillary, or whoever, will be paid handsomely to do what they are told to do.

Jan 05, 2015 11:09 AM
Rainmaker
821,426
Juli Vosmik
Dominion Fine Properties - Scottsdale, AZ
Scottsdale/Cave Creek, AZ real estate 480-710-0739

While I don't like to get political in a public forum (never discuss religion, politics or sex,) I just wish the parties would NOT be party oriented but US citizen oriented.  Two sided politics hasn't worked really well in recent years - can't we learn from that?

Jan 06, 2015 02:32 AM
Rainmaker
1,432,649
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

I think both sides want a healthy housing market.  The real issue is that more and more things are Washington Syntric.  In other words we get top down government and economic policies.  Many of them coming from un elected boards and officials.  Some of these can have a huge impact on Real Estate.  So one bad descision by one idiot in Washington can have a negative impact clear across the country.  We need to decentralize decision making and let local markets dominate.  

Jan 06, 2015 01:51 AM
Rainmaker
1,562,336
Carla Muss-Jacobs, RETIRED
RETIRED / State License is Inactive - Portland, OR

I don't think they have anything to do with the inpact of the real estate market in 2015.  They had nothing to do with the market, in reality, except ruin in and give their bankster buddies a "Get out of jail free card" when the real estate bubble burst.

Jan 05, 2015 11:47 AM
Rainmaker
786,030
Claude Labbe
RLAH / @properties - Washington, DC
Realty for Your Busy Life

* Dem White House, Republican Congress

* Dem White House, Dem Congress

* Republican White House, Republican Congress

* Republican White House, Dem Congress

 

No matter how you slice it.....no difference.  I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but I haven't seen any of these options work in the past 2-3  decades.

Jan 05, 2015 09:03 AM
Rainmaker
1,712,551
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

I will be in DC in May as I am every year for NAR and lobbying Congress. In Oklahoma we have all Republicans and one Senator, Coburn, is retiring who adamantly opposed the mortgage interest deduction and actually told me that home ownership could be a bad thing. The other Senator we pounded for 3 years to support the MID. We have a new Senator coming in that is Pro REALTOR®. It comes down to lobby and money. NAR has done a terific job considering how much we are being outspent but we are still the largest trade organization in the country and carry clout. It is not so much about D versu R, as it is honing in on each one of these representatives.

Jan 05, 2015 09:02 AM
Rainmaker
305,164
Kate McQueen
Realty Associates Texas - Cypress, TX
Tailored service for your real estate needs!

What would you expect Congress to do?  I'm afraid nothing will happen on ANY front in Washington until we have a new president.  As for how the elected reprepresentatives in Washington may impact the RE market, let's hope they don't.  We all know what can happen.

As for the RE market in my area, Texas is doing very well and absent some ridiculous policy-making from our federal government, Texas will continue to do well.  We weren't as heavily hit by the housing crisis as other states and recovery in my area is complete, with low inventory and high demand.  Many people are relocating to Texas for employment and our tax-friendly business environment.

Let's hope the government will leave it alone and allow the free market to expand without manipulation.  The steps taken with stimulus have failed miserably and it should have stopped with TARP.  

 

Jan 05, 2015 02:22 AM
Ambassador
3,727,581
Patricia Kennedy
RLAH@Properties - Washington, DC
Home in the Capital

Who knows?  I really don't see any change.  I can't imagine that, overnight, the Republicans will be inspired to do anything other than whatever they can do to thwart the Democratic administration.  Do I think they will do anything to fix immigration, health care reform or the budget?  Not really.

Jan 05, 2015 02:11 AM
Rainmaker
5,772,353
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

John,

That is an ultra loaded question.  And I have no idea or crystal ball how events will pan out.  I know that we need a lot of changes to be made, and hopefully everyone will cooperate rather than pound their chests.

Jan 04, 2015 03:56 AM
Rainer
434,818
Doyle Davison
Hawaiian Beaches Hawaii - 714-968-6767 - Huntington Beach, CA
30 years as your Concierge services listing broker

I'm sure it will be the same old lame duck game of name calling and finger pointing.  I don't expect a lot to happen until a new president hits office, both sides are just way too divided and polarized like no other time in history.

We need to support Israel at all cost,

Get the heck out of the middle east holy war,

Keep the oil per barrel below 50 bucks,

Sanction and monitor  China and Korea, Iran, ISIS

Keep interest rates historically low,

I would work 50/50 at all cost on some sort of immigration bill

I could go on for days..

 

 

Jan 03, 2015 04:18 PM
Rainer
669,312
Dorte Engel
RE/MAX Leading Edge - Bowie, MD
ABC - Annapolis, Bowie, Crofton & rest of Maryland

Dear John,

I hope, not much. I love Fred's assessment. Very funny!  

Jan 06, 2015 11:47 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Diana Dahlberg That's a great attitude. Unfortunetly my circumstances necessitate a bit more planning for futhre years as well as this year.

Jan 06, 2015 06:48 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

 Great answer Marte Cliff . You're absolutely right. Government is not "CITIZEN FRIENDLY". It will be interesting to see how a Republican Congress will impact the RE industry. I'm hoping they will open some doors that will allow us to start addressing our infrastructure issues. Once that happens jobs will be created and folks will start jumping into the RE market much more fervently.

Jan 06, 2015 03:23 AM
Rainmaker
1,764,315
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

Good question. Obama plans to veto everything, so change for good or bad is not likely. Meanwhile, everyone is still struggling with Dodd/Frank. 

Government is not citizen friendly at the moment. Hoping for change in a couple of years. 

Jan 06, 2015 03:06 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Gene Riemenschneider Great answer and more of what I'm really looking for. You're so right about it taking only one idiot making the wrong decision and you're especially spot on about letting the local markets play out on their own. 

Jan 06, 2015 02:54 AM
Rainer
557,375
Kimo Jarrett
Cyber Properties - Huntington Beach, CA
Pro Lifestyle Solutions

Interesting comments, so let's see if cynicism, pessimism or procrastination about the political impact of the RE industry affects our business. Solutions are difficult to implement when so much emotion is embedded into the circumstances and that's why leadership is vitally important.

 

Jan 06, 2015 01:50 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Fred Griffin Ha! You pretty much summed it up!

Jan 05, 2015 11:35 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Joe Pryor Well if things keep going the way they've been going we just might be going the way or our English ancestors "LANDORD TENANT". But then that gives me some insight on how to position........................SFH vs APARTMENTS.

Great answer!

Jan 05, 2015 09:14 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Pamela Seley, REALTOR® I'm with you 100% on that one. I've been an agnostic Independent since Reagan left office and haven't been too happy with any president or Congress since he left office.

Jan 05, 2015 04:13 AM
Ambassador
1,073,428
John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, IN, MD, MN, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

John, with the implementation of Frank-Dodd, etc over the past few years, I think any legislation in regard to housing will be much smaller scale.

Thankfully, we're not the only country to have gone through problems, and I think congress realizes we're not out of the woods yet.  With inflation so low (and deflation actually being a concern) rates should be able to remain at very low levels.  Our representatives should realize that if rates rise, if will jeopardize the entire economic recovery (both mortgage rates and the rates on credit which also correlate to the Fed funds rate).

 

Both democrats and republicans have to realize the economy is still very fragile - economic troubles or another major drop in the stock market will not look good on the Presidency or congress, so I don't think we'll see any drastic changes in 2015.

Jan 05, 2015 03:53 AM
Rainmaker
85,223
Ernest Villafranca
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate - Oakland, CA
3923 Grand Ave. Oakland CA, 510-418-9443

We will survive...

Jan 05, 2015 03:51 AM
Rainmaker
803,133
Bill Reddington
Re/max By The Sea - Destin, FL
Destin Florida Real Estate

Huge game will continue. Politians always seen to promise the world and them nothing happens. Hope it is different.

Jan 05, 2015 03:50 AM
Ambassador
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Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

Things sure do change fast John.

Oct 27, 2017 09:43 PM
Rainmaker
4,800,082
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Not much.

Oct 06, 2017 10:45 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Hi Dorte, I tried to tag you but I think the little dots above the o in your name are thwarting my effort.

Jan 06, 2015 11:48 PM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Nathan Gesner Well, it certainly hasn't ticked me off my friend. In fact you nailed it. Without a vested interest in anything in life there is no incentive or motivation to produce. Voila......................in come the projects! Perhaps that's where we developers can put our invstment dollars. Thanks Nathan. Great answer.

Jan 06, 2015 08:46 AM
Rainmaker
599,124
Nathan Gesner
American West Realty and Management - Cody, WY
Broker / Property Manager

Anyone that claims politics does not impact the housing market hasn't been paying attention. My personal feeling is that all the parties are completely corrupt and we will never see the wide-spread freedom, prosperity, and opportunities of the past. 

When you look at the two main parties, there is a major difference when it comes to housing. The Republicans (generally) believe that if a person is given enough freedom and opportunity, they will work hard to become productive members of society and our capatilistic system will reward them and they will become home owners. The Democrats (generally) believe that if a person is given the appropriate government assistant, to include being placed in a home, they will become productive citizens that will give back to the betterment of the community.

The evidence shows that when people work hard, save up, and invest in a property, they appreciate it and take care of it. They also take care of their neighborhood because they have a vested interest in it. When people are "given" a home through housing subsidies, low downpayments, etc., they tend to treat the home and community with disregard because they haven't invested themselves into it. They are more likely to walk away when hard times hit, not take care of the property, etc.

There's much more to my thoughts on this, but I'll leave it at that because it's probably already ticked off half the audience! :)

Jan 06, 2015 08:25 AM
Rainmaker
678,558
Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

Interesting question with a variety of opinions.  Only time will tell and at this point I'm moving forward, not looking back, and hoping for an improvement over the past 7 years in real estate.

Jan 06, 2015 05:42 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Carla Muss-Jacobs, Principal Broker/Owner Not necessarily true. I think Dodd Frank had a tremendous impact on the RE industry overall and we're still realing from its effects.

Jan 06, 2015 03:05 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Rich Arnold Interesting take. 

Jan 06, 2015 03:00 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Wish it were that easy. But in the political climate we're living in today prudent RE investors need to be able to stick their finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing. I'm hoping that a Republican will be developer friendly. There's so much that Real Estate brings to the economic table but we need user friendly government to facilitate it.

Jan 06, 2015 02:59 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Kimo Jarrett  

I know it's interesting how posing a question like this hits so many hot buttons and how folks tend to comment on their passionate political beliefs instead of addressing the question at hand. But then that's why I love America. I actually appreciate knowing we have folks out there that can still fog a mirror with a little political ferver.

Jan 06, 2015 02:52 AM
Rainer
266,064
Richard Arnold
Keller Williams Realty East Valley - Tempe, AZ
Realtor - Tempe, Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Phoenix

As always, the wealthy will own, the rich will buy when they have $$$ and sell when they don't, the struggling will rent, the rest will be evicted.

 

Jan 06, 2015 02:52 AM
Ambassador
733,792
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Carla Muss-Jacobs, Principal Broker/Owner I must beg to differ. Had it not been for Dodd Frank where would lending be today good, bad or indefferent? Politics does play widely into the overall scheme of things whether we like it or not.

Jan 06, 2015 02:48 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Claude Labbe  

No pessisimism here at all. I'm with you 

Jan 05, 2015 09:17 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Scott Godzyk so are you suggesting that we're looking pretty much at a status quo future? If so you've come pretty close to answering my question. Developing takes a little futuristic planning and you don't want to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. Sitting on inventory that won't or can't move.  Thanks for your thoughts.

Jan 05, 2015 07:49 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Gene Mundt, Chicago-area Mortgage Lender - www.genemundt.com 

Proded is probably a pretty good word given the mixed bag of answers I see to have garnered on this. Not by design as I was really just looking for some solid dierection for planning my property acquisition strategy. But it's proven to be very ineresting reading such a diverse array of thoughts and opinions.

Jan 05, 2015 07:46 AM
Rainmaker
3,415,644
Scott Godzyk
Godzyk Real Estate Services - Manchester, NH
One of the Manchester NH's area Leading Agents

A realistic vision is The congress and Senate passing bills and Obama giving them a big Veto, therefore the economy will limp along, the fed will keep printing  money, interest rates will stay low, even though the stock market will go up as long as money is being printed the average person will get hammered in taxes and health care fees. Some markets will see a slow increase in values and others a steady pace of contimued foreclosures you are not seeing on the nightly news.

Jan 05, 2015 05:57 AM
Rainmaker
1,291,481
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

John DL Arendsen ... Great discussion you've prodded here!  Wish I could say I have a Soothsayer's hat and knew the answer to this question ... but history has taught me there are too many variables and too much craziness to ever figure out what Washington will do ... or what the future to come will be ...

Gene

Jan 05, 2015 04:35 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Kate McQueen, SRS 

I hear ya loud and clear kiddo. My oldest daughter and her husband and 4 children just moved to Austin for that exact reason. One thing you Texan's do have going for you, however is succession. Certainly an option I'd consider should the Fed start trying to bully you like they do the rest of the Country.

Jan 05, 2015 04:17 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

John Meussner Wow! If I could give a best answer you'd get it for sure. What you say makes a lot of sense and I'm hoping our government will see it that way as well. I'm banking on it...............literally and figuratively.

Jan 05, 2015 04:12 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Ron & Alexandra Seigel Got that right. But I've got some ultra loaded concerns about some rather ambitious projects currently on my table. I don't expect to get any finite answers to such a complex and ambiguous question. But I'm big on extrapolating from a cross section of feedback whence contemplating appreciable spending decisions. Thanks for stopping by.

Jan 04, 2015 04:57 AM
Ambassador
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John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Doyle Lee Austin Davison Iv 

While I whole heartedly, enthusiastically and passionately agree with all your points, much of your answer is great fodder for another discussion that I would truly love to engage in.

However, my question was directly related to the real estate market in your particular area. 

You mentioned "keep interest rates historically low". If this happens I can see some continuing upward mobility in the RE market overall. However, can we really keep our interest rates artificially so low just for the RE Industry?

We all know that this has just been fall out from our Quantitative Easing policies which are no longer there to artificially bolster up the lending industry and their ability to keep rates superficially at all time lows.

At what point do we wake up and smell the roses and start dealing with reality. When that time comes how will that impact Real Estate?

Many RE experts and prognosticators are already beating the war drums of an impending Real Estate bubble. At least in our market area. Personally, albeit many of the big hedge funders gobbled up much if not most of our distressed & foreclosed "shadow" inventory, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop which I don't think it ever has since this all started in '08

With no more QE and the fact that a conservative congress won't be too keen on reintroducing it at some point those interest rates will have to go up and when they do it will impact an already dwindling "eligible" buyers pool.

Interest rates will begin to tick up by default, sales will soften, inventories will begin to rise and sales will start to slow. That's not to say that we will experience a resurgence in default activity. But I do think it will definitely cool our jets substantially until reality and normalcy sets in and balances these dynamics out.

I'm not in the lending biz. I'm just a humble Real Estate Broker, General Contractor and Factory Built Housing Developer looking for answers from a very good real estate forum.

None of us have crystal balls and we can't predict the future. But I'm just sticking my toe in the water before I jump in with all fours and start sticking shovels in the ground to over zealously. 

At first I was extremely excited about the prospect of a Republican Congress thinking that all Hell would break loose and we'd experience a huge surge in real estate activity.

However, when I really started to think about it I began to realize that fiscal policies will probably tighten not loosen. Am I thinking clearly? Or am I missing something? 

Jan 04, 2015 12:13 AM