Derek McClintock's Blog

As noted here, we have talked about volatility that would dominate markets the next couple of weeks. today a good example; yesterday MBS prices fell 33 bp on the day, this morning the 30 yr 3.5 FNMA coupon at 8:30 +73 bps. All about data points and markets were surprised (again) when at 8:30 the ...

A nice price reversal yesterday, after being down 107 bps at 9:30 the 3.5 July FNMA ended down just 14 bps; the 10 yr note unchanged at the end of the day at 2.54%. This morning prior to 8:30 the 10 yr yield had fallen to 2.49% (5:00 am); 8:30 brought May durable goods orders better than forecast...

Not a good start this morning, after the serious selling yesterday in the bond and stock markets this morning the 10 yr note climbed to 2.43%, up another eight basis points frm yesterday’s increase of 17 bps. Yesterday 30 yr the 3.5 July FNMA coupon price fell 121 bp and GNMA 3.5 fell 177 basis p...

Yesterday the bond and stock markets rallied as the FOMC meeting gets closer. For the past month markets have been consumed with the belief that the Fed was about to begin reducing its purchases of MBSs and treasuries. As the meeting approaches (next Tuesday and Wednesday) those “rock solid” beli...

Japan’s stock market took another huge hit last night taking the Nikkei index down 6.0% and now trading in bearish territory. The reaction sent the US stock indexes down and dropped the 10 yr note yield to 2.18%. Europe’s stock markets also were it hard on the Japanese selling. US economic data a...

Market confusion and uncertainty continue to play out in the financial markets. Yesterday stock indexes fell and the treasury and mortgage markets improved, this morning the stock indexes better and treasuries under some pressure. With increasing concerns that the Fed will begin tapering its easi...

At 7:00 this morning the 10 yr note yield was at 2.28% +7 bp frm yesterday’s close; at 9:00 the note improved to 2.24%. US, Europe and Asian stock market all being hit hard today; at 9:00 the DJIA was-115 frm yesterday’s close pointing to a very weak open at 9:30. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -139, NA...

The 10 yr note is continuing to increase; at 9:00 this morning at 2.19% +1 bp while MBS prices at9:00 unchanged. Today there are no scheduled economic releases but St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will be speaking on global growth as he summers in Canada; today Montreal, last week in Toronto...

The May employment report, one of the most anticipated in years, in many respects was not as volatile as most of them are. Non-farm jobs earlier this week were for an increases of 167K, after the ADP report on Wednesday being weaker than what had been expected the estimates were ratcheted lower. ...

Prior to 8:15 the 10 yr was +8/32 at 2.12% -3 bps; US stock indexes were slightly weaker. At 8:15ADP reported private job growth in May increased by 135K, the consensus estimate was +170K; April private jobs were revised lower, to 113K frm 119K. It was all in the service sector increasing 135K, c...