mortgage rates: The Crisis of Confidence
- 07/13/08 02:03 PM
The Crisis of Confidence....that's probably the best way to describe it. Friday was a crazy day in the financial markets being headlined by the potential failure of the government sponsors agencies (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. At the start of Friday it was reported the government could take over these agencies over the weekend and perhaps they would dissolve and rename them. Well both stocks opened sharply to the downside. At about 2pm there were rumors that the Bernanke was going to announce the opening of the discount window to Fannie and Freddie to help solve their liquidity problems. By 315pm the … (2 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Update Friday the June 13th, 2008
- 06/13/08 03:52 PM
Well it is official......the bond market is fearful of inflation. Some decent CPI numbers came out this morning but that was overshadowed this afternoon by the word no bullish bond trader wants to here........INFLATION is here and rising......well on the flip side it is quite obvious with the cost of food and energy. The manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers are going have to pass their rising costs off to the consumer, at least partially and that leads to inflation. At the end of May mortgage rates were in the low 6s and we are just another down day away from 7% conforming … (1 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 3rd, 2008
- 06/03/08 01:25 AM
Mortgage bonds are trading -6 bps this morning with no economic data on the docket for today. Fed chairman Bernanke is speaking this morning about the economy and he could move markets, other than that bond trading will be driven by the stock market (stocks up bonds down vice versa) Bonds did close above the 200 day moving average yesterday and if those levels can hold today bonds rates should be trending lower for the next few days. Some employment, productivity and manufacturing numbers are to be released tomorrow that could sway the markets, but for now I recommend a … (2 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 2nd, 2008
- 06/02/08 12:43 AM
Mortgage bonds are up 22 bps this morning. After the selloff Friday afternoon, pricing should be right inline with the Friday morning rate sheets. Just 9 bps higher and bonds hit the strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average. Wait and see what rates do after the ISM number is released this morning at 10am. The ISM is released on the 1st business day of each month reflecting the manufacturing industry for the previous month. Its a survey of purchasing executives at roughly 300 industrial companies. A number above 50 show expansion and below 50 contraction. Last month's number was 48.6 and it is estimated this month … (1 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Update for May 30th PCE and Bulls v. Bears
- 05/30/08 01:42 AM
Mortgage Bonds are up 41 bps as of 910am this morning. Core PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures without food and energy, was released this morning in line with estimates, inflation is still under control. Year or Year PCE is 2.1% slightly above the Fed's target range of 1-2% but this the Fed expects that to creep up in the coming year more before it retreats back to their comfort zone. Expect a nice pop in rate sheets this morning has bonds test resistance at the 200 day moving average. Yesterday bond did rally late day and close very near this open, this … (0 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Update for May 29th
- 05/29/08 04:15 AM
Well so much for hoping rates would stay above the 200 day moving average as I hoped ina blog post last night: May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart Bonds gapped open lower today by a negative 31 bps. We are now down 75 bps are should lock everything under the sun for now as there is still a decent amount of downside in the bond market. The GDP grow for the first quarter was revised upward to 0.9% from 0.6% and the job market is still showing some stability. Overall decent news. Watch for my selling pressure this afternoon. Bonds have … (0 comments)
mortgage rates: May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart
- 05/28/08 11:27 AM
Today I posted my mortgage market update for the day and recommended to FLOAT because we had tested a key level of support at the 200 day moving average which we did bounce off. Just after 1pm, bonds did fall through that support and I changed my bias to a LOCK position, so I updated my blog to let people know . Most lenders did reprice their rate sheet for the worse so it was the prudent advice. The bond market did rally back however and close right above the 200 day moving average. So tomorrow we should see some better pricing and if the PCE on Friday … (0 comments)
mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Update May 27th, 2008
- 05/27/08 02:37 AM
Well Consumer Confidence just hit the wire for the month of May at 57.2 missing estimates of 61.0, meaning consumers are losing confidence faster than expected. New home sales beat expectations by 6,000 and increased over last month by 17,000. Although this is positive, new home sales account for just 16% of the total housing market. Standard & Poor's Case Shiller Index reported today a 14.4% drop in the last year and 16 consecutive months of decline. The index rates only the 20 Major Metro Areas and in my opinion should not reflect the entire nation numbers because of increase … (2 comments)
mortgage rates: Fed Minutes Summary
- 05/21/08 06:46 AM
The Federal Open Market Committee released their minutes from their April meeting at 2pm today Here are the highlights: They lowered their growth forecast of the economy slightly over the next few years. They expect higher inflation and unemployment in 2008 and 2009. They believe "risk is receding" in the credit markets (signals the worst is over in the credit crunch) They have raised the bar for future rate cuts. Cuts are unlikely going forward even if the economy slows further or contracts slightly. Only a significant weakening in the economic outlook would likely prompt further easing by the FOMC. So … (1 comments)
mortgage rates: MOrtgage Rate Update May 21st
- 05/21/08 03:11 AM
This morning's mortgage bonds are off about 20 bps. Bonds are still sitting above a strong level of support at the 100 and 50 day moving averages so I recommend to FLOAT for now.
This afternoon the much anticipated Fed Minutes are released at 2pm. In these minutes we will discover how the members view the current and future of the economy and their gauge on inflation. Expect confirmation about stopping rate cuts going forward this year. It should be interesting and might be a market mover. I will repost if bonds move negatively on this release. … (0 comments)
mortgage rates: PPI released, mixed numbers - Mortage Rate update for May 20th
- 05/20/08 01:51 AM
PPI, producers price index, was released this morning and was tamer than expected at 0.2%. The street was expecting 0.4%, however core PPI (ex food and energy) was hotter 0.4% than expected 0.2%. Stock are reacting negatively to this news on the open and mortgage bonds so far are up 16 bps today. The Bulls won the battle yesterday at the 50 and 100 moving average market, and that is now a level of support technically for the mortgage bond market. Expect slightly better pricing today for the mortgage loan officers out there, the rates however should be the same as yesterday. I recommend … (0 comments)
mortgage rates: Economic / Rate update going into Wednesday May 14
- 05/14/08 01:18 AM
Well Bonds took a beating yesterday and long-term mortgage rates are back down to mid april 2008 level, overall still in the high 5%, low 6% range. This morning CPI (consumer price index), a measure of inflation, moderated from 4.0% to 3.9% and if you strip out food and energy, which they call core CPI we are at 2.3% year over year, which is hotter than the Fed wants inflation to be. But still better than we were expecting today. I wonder how exactly they come up with these numbers since food price rise of .9% in April was highest since 1990. Interesting stat I heard this morning … (2 comments)
mortgage rates: Rates Worsen....Retail Sales in....better than expected.
- 05/13/08 01:35 AM
Retail sales numbers were released this morning and came in better than expected. The overall number was right in line at -0.2% but the retail number not counting car purchases was up more than double at 0.5% while the analysts were expecting a 0.2% gain. Better than expected news should be good for the stocks in hopes of a mild or no recession and bad for bonds as money moves out of bonds and into stocks thus causing mortgage bond yields to drop and mortgage interest rates to rise. … (2 comments)
mortgage rates: Current Rates are Great...should I lock?
- 02/29/08 07:58 AM
Rates have come off their lows from Monday and have improved every day this week. So what should we tell our clients going into this weekend, lock or float? We have retraced by more than 50% of the recent quick downturn, which for all technical junkies out there is a signal we might be running out of steam and should be safe and lock it in. On the other hand, we are sitting above a dual level of resistance at the 25 and 50 day moving averages currently and looking to close that way. If we have upward movement come Monday we … (13 comments)
mortgage rates: Rates, rates, rates what is going on with rates?
- 02/26/08 04:16 AM
Let's just throw out the adjustable rates for now, clients are scared, and no one wants them fixed rates are usually a better or very close the same rate anyway, except for maybe the 3/1 ARM because of the inverted or flat yield curve(what ever those are) so I won't speak of them. How are mortgage rates determined? From Mortgage Backed Securities or Mortgage Bonds NOT the 10 year treasury note like many believe. Rates are way off their lows of month ago right around 6.25% -6.375% for a 60 day lock today 2.26.08 as of 1:10pm EST on 30 year conforming (that is below $417,000 in most areas). They did … (16 comments)
The Crisis of Confidence....that's probably the best way to describe it. 
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