mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for Friday July 25, 2008
- 07/25/08 01:24 AM
Bonds had a nice rally yesterday and closed above a key level of resistance. In order for confirmation of a technical break through the next trading day needs open above that as well......well bonds did not and they have given back 70% of yesterday's gains already. The headline number of durable goods came in much better than expected. Estimates called for negative 0.3% and the actual number was up 0.8%, stock market should open well today. Friday's in the summer tend to be very volatile so expect yet another crazy day in the markets.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information … (3 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for July 16th, 2008
- 07/16/08 12:45 AM
CPI was hotter than expected which is inflationary and bad for mortgage bonds. CPI was estimated at .7% and came in at 1.1% year or year is 5% Core CPI, ex -food and -engergy, was estimated at .2% and came in at .3% year or year it is 2.4% It is the biggest CPI jump in a single month since 1982, biggest year or year rise since 1991. Bonds are down 25 bps but are down 19 bps right now but it's still early......overall not a great number but you kind of had to expect this so it could be … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for Tuesday July 15th, 2008
- 07/15/08 01:07 AM
Another crazy day in this economy....the PPI was hotter than expected this morning which means inflation and the Retail Sales number missed. The core PPI which takes out food and energy was slightly better than expected which is some positive upside, but really food and energy is an obvious concern. Mortgage Bonds had a nice run up yesterday after their big brother, our government, backed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which confirms these companies are just too big to fail. Stocks look to open down this morning as GM halted their dividend. Technically bonds closed between the 50 and 100 day moving average … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: The Crisis of Confidence
- 07/13/08 02:03 PM
The Crisis of Confidence....that's probably the best way to describe it. Friday was a crazy day in the financial markets being headlined by the potential failure of the government sponsors agencies (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. At the start of Friday it was reported the government could take over these agencies over the weekend and perhaps they would dissolve and rename them. Well both stocks opened sharply to the downside. At about 2pm there were rumors that the Bernanke was going to announce the opening of the discount window to Fannie and Freddie to help solve their liquidity problems. By 315pm the … (2 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for Wednesday July 9th, 2008
- 07/08/08 11:13 PM
Bonds have been on a wild ride this week trading significantly lower until a sharp turn around Monday afternoon followed by a big rally yesterday, opening at their low and closing just off their high. The 30 year fixed rate is at it's best level in just over a month. Bonds and stocks both finished up on the day which is not a normal occurrence. Oil was down over $5 on the day, the biggest one day drop in about 4 months. Technically bonds broke through 2 levels of resistance and are just 28 bps below the 200 day moving average, which will be … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for June 30, 2008
- 06/30/08 01:35 AM
Today is the last day of the 2nd quarter and the DOW is on pace to have its worse month of June since 1930. A new oil intraday high of $143.57 just hit as well. I just heard those stats and thought I should share. This is my first update in a week, I was in training most of last week and had limited computer access. Mortgage Bonds did rally last week after the Fed changed their policy statement preparing themselves to act if inflation worries continue. Personal Consumption Expenditure was released Friday as well and the Core PCE which does not count … (2 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for June 23rd, 2008
- 06/23/08 10:45 AM
This week is about about Wednesday and what the Fed is going to do. It would be an absolute shock if they chose to raise rates to begin the fight on inflation. Wall Street is most interested in what the statement is going to say about the issues and their views, expect volatility.....safe beat is to lock.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 508.363.2223. Bryan has worked in the Central Mass and Worcester area for the past 6 years as … (2 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rates for June 20, 2008
- 06/22/08 10:06 PM
Bonds were off 3 bps on the day this Friday, aftering stalling out and not being able to break up the upward resistance line for the 3 consecutive day. There was not economic released and the down did finish off down over 200 points and the S & P finished down 1.8%. Unusual day for stocks and bonds both to lose stream. However bond traders awaiting the fed decision on Wednesday, expect a very votatile week ahead.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for June 17th, 2008
- 06/17/08 10:26 AM
CPI was in line with expectations and PPI was a bit hotter this morning. Mortgage Bonds seems to have drawn a line in the sand for now and are attempting a reversal. We finished up 50 bps on the day closing right inbetween a dual layer of resistance. Bonds are also highly oversold which should bring some more buyers into this market and drive the price up a bit, thus dropping rates. Let's hope this continues tomorrow and we get rates back to the mid 6% range.
For now we are FLOATING!
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was … (2 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for June 16,2008
- 06/16/08 02:50 AM
Mortgage backed securities are trading flat on the day down just 3bps this morning. Bonds have been in a downward trend for the last 2 weeks and rates have crept up .75% higher nearing 7.00%. The recent pressure on bonds are due to the pressure the heightened inflation concerns of the market. The Fed meets next week and bonds traders are looking for short-term rates to be increased which will be great for long-term bond rates....however don't expect much more than shift in the policy statement. Floating for now.... … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update Friday the June 13th, 2008
- 06/13/08 03:52 PM
Well it is official......the bond market is fearful of inflation. Some decent CPI numbers came out this morning but that was overshadowed this afternoon by the word no bullish bond trader wants to here........INFLATION is here and rising......well on the flip side it is quite obvious with the cost of food and energy. The manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers are going have to pass their rising costs off to the consumer, at least partially and that leads to inflation. At the end of May mortgage rates were in the low 6s and we are just another down day away from 7% conforming … (1 comments)
mortgage market update: Market Update for June 12, 2008
- 06/12/08 01:32 AM
Mortgage Bonds are down 38 bps this morning as of 920am EST. Stock futures are up and oil is down which is leading to bond deterioration. Retail sales were released this morning and came in better than expected for May and better than they were in April, very good news for consumer sentiment. Some people did receive their stimulus checks at the end of May so that may have added to the positive numbers. With a dual layer of support just behind current prices it would be prudent to FLOAT for now. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided … (0 comments)
On a technical note, mortgage bonds are down 5 straight session at 216 bps points....rates have rose to the 6.625% area on a conventional 30 year fixed. Bonds are oversold, which generally indicates that the buyers will be back and drive prices back up. When bonds drop suddenly they have a tendancy to retest half of their loss so in this case upside of above 100 bps...there is no guarantee and a lot with have to do with what the future economic indicators say, but technically it hopefully will happen That being said bonds are trading high by 28 … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Market Update June 10th, 2008
- 06/09/08 11:12 PM
Mortgage Backed Securities had a wild day yesterday. Off 81 bps at the low but did rally to close at a support level see chart below noting the circled red candlestick representing yesterdays trading day(amazing how that works)
Bernanke spoke yesterday about inflation believing the sluggish growth of our economy will hold donw inflation, seemingly not considering a rate hike in the near future. Bonds like good inflation talk and that was okay so we will see how bonds react this morning. Retail sales out Thursday...should see a big reaction in the market. … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Market Update June 9th, 2008
- 06/09/08 12:19 AM
Mortgage Bonds are taking a beating off this morning by 59 bps early bouncing off a resistance level and now are sitting down on a level of support. No economic data released today. Retail Sales is out Thursday which should be a market mover. Oil went up $16 a barrell on Thursday and Friday. Rates are at their worst level since the first part of March. Lehman Brothers lost 2.8 billion and is raising another $6 billion in cash....a sign the credit crisis is not quite over. All in all rates are in a down trend and we look for some support level to strengths … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for 6/6/2008 - are we in a Recession???
- 06/06/08 12:18 AM
Non-farm payrolls estimated -60,000 actual -49000 (better than expected...good news for the economy bad for mortgage rates) Unemployment numbers estimated 5.1% actual is 5.5% (huge jump of .5% last time this happened was in 1986.....THIS IS A HUGE NUMBER PROBABLY CATCHING UP TO WHATEVER EVERYONE WAS EXPECTING) Unemployed workers surged by 861,000 last month. There are now 8.5 million unemployed in the US. We are still not technically in a traditional recession but seem to be in growth recession with rising unemployment with not enough grow to accommodate new workers coming into the labor force. Mortgage Bonds prior to these numbers were down … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Market Update for June 4th, 2008
- 06/04/08 02:19 AM
Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning and surprise, surprise they are sitting right on the 200 day moving average. On Monday bonds broke through and closed above the 200 DMA and did trade below it yesterday but closed in positive territory at the end of the trading day. Technically yesterday was a bulls v. bears struggle because of the wide trading range so it could be another day of uncertainty in the mortgage bond market. Productivity and ISM Index both came in better than consensus and stocks have been down over the past few days so I expect a … (0 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for June 3rd, 2008
- 06/03/08 01:25 AM
Mortgage bonds are trading -6 bps this morning with no economic data on the docket for today. Fed chairman Bernanke is speaking this morning about the economy and he could move markets, other than that bond trading will be driven by the stock market (stocks up bonds down vice versa) Bonds did close above the 200 day moving average yesterday and if those levels can hold today bonds rates should be trending lower for the next few days. Some employment, productivity and manufacturing numbers are to be released tomorrow that could sway the markets, but for now I recommend a … (2 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for June 2nd, 2008
- 06/02/08 12:43 AM
Mortgage bonds are up 22 bps this morning. After the selloff Friday afternoon, pricing should be right inline with the Friday morning rate sheets. Just 9 bps higher and bonds hit the strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average. Wait and see what rates do after the ISM number is released this morning at 10am. The ISM is released on the 1st business day of each month reflecting the manufacturing industry for the previous month. Its a survey of purchasing executives at roughly 300 industrial companies. A number above 50 show expansion and below 50 contraction. Last month's number was 48.6 and it is estimated this month … (1 comments)
mortgage market update: Mortgage Rate Update for May 30th PCE and Bulls v. Bears
- 05/30/08 01:42 AM
Mortgage Bonds are up 41 bps as of 910am this morning. Core PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures without food and energy, was released this morning in line with estimates, inflation is still under control. Year or Year PCE is 2.1% slightly above the Fed's target range of 1-2% but this the Fed expects that to creep up in the coming year more before it retreats back to their comfort zone. Expect a nice pop in rate sheets this morning has bonds test resistance at the 200 day moving average. Yesterday bond did rally late day and close very near this open, this … (0 comments)
Bonds had a nice rally yesterday and closed above a key level of resistance. In order for confirmation of a technical break through the next trading day needs open above that as well......well bonds did not and they have given back 70% of yesterday's gains already. The headline number of durable goods came in much better than expected. Estimates called for negative 0.3% and the actual number was up 0.8%, stock market should open well today. Friday's in the summer tend to be very volatile so expect yet another crazy day in the markets.
;)
;)
