interest rates: Mortgage Market Update for Wednesday July 9th, 2008 - 07/08/08 11:13 PM
Bonds have been on a wild ride this week trading significantly lower until a sharp turn around Monday afternoon followed by a big rally yesterday, opening at their low and closing just off their high.  The 30 year fixed rate is at it's best level in just over a month. 
Bonds and stocks both finished up on the day which is not a normal occurrence.  Oil was down over $5 on the day, the biggest one day drop in about 4 months. 
Technically bonds broke through 2 levels of resistance and are just 28 bps below the 200 day moving average, which will be … (0 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 23rd, 2008 - 06/23/08 10:45 AM
This week is about about Wednesday and what the Fed is going to do.  It would be an absolute shock if they chose to raise rates to begin the fight on inflation.  Wall Street is most interested in what the statement is going to say about the issues and their views, expect volatility.....safe beat is to lock.
 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 508.363.2223.  Bryan has worked in the Central Mass and Worcester area for the past 6 years as … (2 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Market update June 19th, 2008 - 06/19/08 02:49 PM
 Rates were down modestly today 22 bps on the day.  Bonds tested both the closest support and resisitance levels and closed right in the middle of it....meaning we are in another tug of war with the bulls and the bears going into next week's Fed meeting.  From a technical standpoint bonds are still "oversold" so hopefully we can break through the resistance and get interest rates back down a bit.
 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 508.363.2223.  Bryan has worked in … (3 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 17th, 2008 - 06/17/08 10:26 AM
CPI was in line with expectations and PPI was a bit hotter this morning.  Mortgage Bonds seems to have drawn a line in the sand for now and are attempting a reversal.  We finished up 50 bps on the day closing right inbetween a dual layer of resistance.  Bonds are also highly oversold which should bring some more buyers into this market and drive the price up a bit, thus dropping rates.  Let's hope this continues tomorrow and we get rates back to the mid 6% range. 
 
For now we are FLOATING!
 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was … (2 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Market Update for June 16,2008 - 06/16/08 02:50 AM
Mortgage backed securities are trading flat on the day down just 3bps this morning.  Bonds have been in a downward trend for the last 2 weeks and rates have crept up .75% higher nearing 7.00%.
The recent pressure on bonds are due to the pressure the heightened inflation concerns of the market.  The Fed meets next week and bonds traders are looking for short-term rates to be increased which will be great for long-term bond rates....however don't expect much more than shift in the policy statement.
Floating for now....
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interest rates: Mortgage Market Update Friday the June 13th, 2008 - 06/13/08 03:52 PM
Well it is official......the bond market is fearful of inflation.  Some decent CPI numbers came out this morning but that was overshadowed this afternoon by the word no bullish bond trader wants to here........INFLATION is here and rising......well on the flip side it is quite obvious with the cost of food and energy.  The manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers are going have to pass their rising costs off to the consumer, at least partially and that leads to inflation.
At the end of May mortgage rates were in the low 6s and we are just another down day away from 7% conforming … (1 comments)

interest rates: Market Update for June 12, 2008 - 06/12/08 01:32 AM
Mortgage Bonds are down 38 bps this morning as of 920am EST.  Stock futures are up and oil is down which is leading to bond deterioration.  Retail sales were released this morning and came in better than expected for May and better than they were in April, very good news for consumer sentiment.  Some people did receive their stimulus checks at the end of May so that may have added to the positive numbers.  With a dual layer of support just behind current prices it would be prudent to FLOAT for now.
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided … (0 comments)

interest rates: Market Update for June 10th, 2008 - 06/11/08 12:28 AM
 
 
On a technical note, mortgage bonds are down 5 straight session at 216 bps points....rates have rose to the 6.625% area on a conventional 30 year fixed.  Bonds are oversold, which generally indicates that the buyers will be back and drive prices back up.  When bonds drop suddenly they have a tendancy to retest half of their loss so in this case upside of above 100 bps...there is no guarantee and a lot with have to do with what the future economic indicators say, but technically it hopefully will happen
That being said bonds are trading high by 28 … (0 comments)

interest rates: Market Update June 9th, 2008 - 06/09/08 12:19 AM

Mortgage Bonds are taking a beating off this morning by 59 bps early bouncing off a resistance level and now are sitting down on a level of support.  No economic data released today.  Retail Sales is out Thursday which should be a market mover.  Oil went up $16 a barrell on Thursday and Friday.  Rates are at their worst level since the first part of March.  Lehman Brothers lost 2.8 billion and is raising another $6 billion in cash....a sign the credit crisis is not quite over.  All in all rates are in a down trend and we look for some support level to strengths … (0 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 5th, 2008 - 06/05/08 04:08 AM

 
Mortgage Bonds are down again today after breaking through the 200 day moving average yesterday afternoon.  Initial jobless claims where lower than expected this morning and the umemployment rate is released tomorrow and given the inconsistentcy of this number recently we will remain in a LOCK.  Should be a big market mover tomorrow.  Stay tuned....
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interest rates: Mortgage Market Update for June 4th, 2008 - 06/04/08 02:19 AM

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning and surprise, surprise they are sitting right on the 200 day moving average.  On Monday bonds broke through and closed above the 200 DMA and did trade below it yesterday but closed in positive territory at the end of the trading day.  Technically yesterday was a bulls v. bears struggle because of the wide trading range so it could be another day of uncertainty in the mortgage bond market.
Productivity and ISM Index both came in better than consensus and stocks have been down over the past few days so I expect a … (0 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 3rd, 2008 - 06/03/08 01:25 AM

Mortgage bonds are trading -6 bps this morning with no economic data on the docket for today.  Fed chairman Bernanke is speaking this morning about the economy and he could move markets, other than that bond trading will be driven by the stock market (stocks up bonds down vice versa)
Bonds did close above the 200 day moving average yesterday and if those levels can hold today bonds rates should be trending lower for the next few days.  Some employment, productivity and manufacturing numbers are to be released tomorrow that could sway the markets, but for now I recommend a … (2 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for June 2nd, 2008 - 06/02/08 12:43 AM

Mortgage bonds are up 22 bps this morning.  After the selloff Friday afternoon, pricing should be right inline with the Friday morning rate sheets.  Just 9 bps higher and bonds hit the strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average.  Wait and see what rates do after the ISM number is released this morning at 10am.
The ISM is released on the 1st business day of each month reflecting the manufacturing industry for the previous month.  Its a survey of purchasing executives at roughly 300 industrial companies.  A number above 50 show expansion and below 50 contraction.
Last month's number was 48.6 and it is estimated this month … (1 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for May 29th - 05/29/08 04:15 AM

Well so much for hoping rates would stay above the 200 day moving average as I hoped ina blog post last night:  May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart
Bonds gapped open lower today by a negative 31 bps.  We are now down 75 bps are should lock everything under the sun for now as there is still a decent amount of downside in the bond market.
The GDP grow for the first quarter was revised upward to 0.9% from 0.6% and the job market is still showing some stability.  Overall decent news.  Watch for my selling pressure this afternoon.  Bonds have … (0 comments)

interest rates: May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart - 05/28/08 11:27 AM

Today I posted my mortgage market update for the day and recommended to FLOAT because we had tested a key level of support at the 200 day moving average which we did bounce off.  Just after 1pm, bonds did fall through that support and I changed my bias to a LOCK position, so I updated my blog to let people know .  Most lenders did reprice their rate sheet for the worse so it was the prudent advice.  The bond market did rally back however and close right above the 200 day moving average.  So tomorrow we should see some better pricing and if the PCE on Friday … (0 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update for May 28th - 05/28/08 01:58 AM

Durable goods orders were released this morning for April coming in better than expected at -0.5%.  The estimate was -1.5%.  Durable goods are manufacturing goods that are expect to last at least three years.  Usually a better than expected number means that companies are spending extra capital on equipment for future growth and the economy will be doing better down the road while inflation could be reduced.  However the March number of a growth of 0.1% was revised downward to -0.3% which the mortgage bond market is not taking well.  Bonds are down 31 bps after bouncing off their lows of 50 bps at the … (1 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Market Update May 27th, 2008 - 05/27/08 02:37 AM

Well Consumer Confidence just hit the wire for the month of May at 57.2 missing estimates of 61.0, meaning consumers are losing confidence faster than expected.  New home sales beat expectations by 6,000 and increased over last month by 17,000.  Although this is positive, new home sales account for just 16% of the total housing market. 
Standard & Poor's Case Shiller Index reported today a 14.4% drop in the last year and 16 consecutive months of decline.  The index rates only the 20 Major Metro Areas and in my opinion should not reflect the entire nation numbers because of increase … (2 comments)

interest rates: Market Update May 23rd -Existing Home Sales - 05/23/08 03:54 AM
This morning Existing Home Sales were released and came in slightly better than expected.  4.89 mil v 4.85 mil.  But still on a downward trend year or year.  The US is off 17.5% in seasonally adjusted sales year over year and 8% in price during the same time frame.  The most interesting stat released was the inventory of homes which is just shy a year's supply at 11.2 months.  Let's hope the end is near.
Technically we are now below the 3 levels of resistance at the 25, 50 and 100 day moving averages and mortgage bonds are up today modestly … (0 comments)

interest rates: Mortgage Rate Update May 22nd - 05/22/08 12:54 AM
This morning's initial jobless claims came out slightly better than expected 365k v 370k.  The stock futures are taking the news as a positive and money will move out of bonds and into stocks.  The DOW lost a decent amount over the past 2 days so expect a good day for stocks early on.  In other news oil prices hit another all-time high at over $135 per barrell this morning.  Bonds don't like the inflation in that.
Mortgage Bonds are down about 40 bps early this morning and are sitting on the key level of support.  The damage seems to be … (1 comments)

interest rates: Fed Minutes Summary - 05/21/08 06:46 AM
The Federal Open Market Committee released their minutes from their April meeting at 2pm today
Here are the highlights:
They lowered their growth forecast of the economy slightly over the next few years.
They expect higher inflation and unemployment in 2008 and 2009.
They believe "risk is receding" in the credit markets (signals the worst is over in the credit crunch)
They have raised the bar for future rate cuts.  Cuts are unlikely going forward even if the economy slows further or contracts slightly.  Only a significant weakening in the economic outlook would likely prompt further easing by the FOMC.
So … (1 comments)

 
Bryan Flynn, Central Mass and Worcester Mortgages (Regency Mortgage Corporation)

Bryan Flynn

Central Mass and Worcester Mortgages

Worcester, MA

More about me…

Regency Mortgage Corporation

Address: 193 West Boylston Street, West Boylston, MA, 01583

Office: 774(261) 849-6774

Mobile: (508) 207-0807

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