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Last week started off with a rough Monday but then markets rejoiced when CPI numbers came out Tuesday. Even though CPI inflation numbers came in at 8.5%, slightly higher than expectations, the markets dug into the month-over-month increase of a little over 6% and saw the month-to-month inflationa...
Chart Check (see above) Don't blame the messenger We continue to live in our downtrend channel. We may push the boundaries of resistance/support a little bit, but I expect the downtrend to continue for now (especially as the Fed “plans” to unload the balance sheet). I haven’t spoken about the 50 ...
 "Our biggest challenge today is completing homes, not selling them, as demand continues to be robust." – Jeff Kaminski, CFO KB Homes Let's GO! We have the potential for a volatile 2 week period ahead of us. This week, we hear from a lot of Fed members ahead of next week’s (4/11 & 4/12) inflation...
“There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level” – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Hi All!  As I expected, the Fed continued with a quarter-point hike in rates. The markets expected that. Last week I said his outlook would weigh more than...
“We’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain uncomfortably high.” – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen I expect massive volatility this week as the war with Russia and Ukraine continues. A few stories have developed this past weekend.Russia has asked China for assi...
Don't forget to Spring Forward tonight and enjoy the extra hour of sunshine tomorrow.Since we are not all farmers, I wish we could just drop the Daylight savings time and not Fall Back.
Last week I made two calls that are playing out sooner than I expected. The calls: 1) The Fed will hesitate to raise rates during a war and2) there is no way they will raise them the 6-7 times they’ve announced for the 1.5-1.75pt minimum rate hike increase Fed Powell confirmed those 2 calls in on...
I wrote my usual Rate watch Blog last night but really wanted to expand on the impact of Russia's actions. As I view the markets I am caustiosly optimistic the meglomaniac will come to his senses.Overnight, the Russian ruble collapsed to a record low against the dollar, and its central bank more ...
“The interest on the public debt for fiscal year 2021 is estimated to be $413 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office”  This essay is a little longer. Hope you enjoy it. As easily predicted, the war in Ukraine has captured headlines. Regardless of one’s views, if the war spreads or ...
“It’s not tight policy. Don’t let anybody tell you it’s tight policy,” he said. “It’s removal of accommodation that will signal that we take our responsibility seriously.” – St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard I have been saying repeatedly that the Fed will be forced to make moves or else be deemed incom...

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