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RECENT BLOG POSTS
We are coming off of a short week and heading into a packed one. Let’s first discuss the calendar.We hear from a few Fed members, get a variety of economic data, the Fed’s Beige Book is released, and finish the week with the unemployment rate on Friday.Monday St Louis Fed President Bullard inter...
11/28/2022
Last week was yet another volatile week. The market has been salivating at any news in order to place their bets. We saw intraday volatility spike. PPI reports came in better than expected but then Fed members were more hawkish in their stances. Markets are trying to digest all this contradictor...
11/21/2022
Inflation came in lower than expected. We saw the bond market rally more on Friday than any other day this year. Inflation year over year was lower but month over month did not decrease. However, the fact that it beat expectations was enough to spark a rally.The Fed will be looking for trends/pat...
11/15/2022
We had a very, as should always be expected, volatile week. The Fed raised rates by 75bps – but this should come as no surprise.The markets began to rally when the expected rate hike took place and Powell began his speech by discussing lower future hikes. However, the market quickly turned when ...
11/07/2022
We have a huge week coming up. The Fed is meeting and will announce policy changes on November 2nd. The market is expecting a 75bp hike. We also get unemployment numbers on Friday.This past year I've been talking about a rally for midterm elections and I believe it was sparked last week. I expect...
10/31/2022
There has been a lot of speculation in the markets with regard to what the Fed will do (mostly for them to ease much sooner than expected). I don’t think anyone will doubt the 75 bp rate hike coming in November. The Fed won’t go higher than that next week because that will spook the markets into...
10/24/2022
CPI numbers came out last week which caused markets to stir. The number everyone is watching is the month-over-month data, which came in at a 0.4% increase. This is more than the 0.1% increase before that, squandering some hopes of cooling inflation. Obviously, this is important because the Fed i...
10/17/2022
We had another volatile week. It ended roughly due to the jobs report that came in showing a lower-than-expected 3.5% unemployment rate. Although job growth fell short of expectations, the unemployment rate is where most eyes were focused on. A low unemployment rate “means” the economy is doing w...
10/09/2022
On to this week. The big news to hit was that the Bank of England did over a $70bln bond purchase to provide liquidity to overleveraged pension funds. These funds were margin called and would have gone under if the BOE did not intervene. The bank said that they are prepared to do whatever is need...
10/03/2022
The Fed raised rates by 0.75% as the market expected. Last week’s action was similar to all weeks with a Fed decision. The days leading up to the decision were rough and then the market rallies on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. After all, he has to raise rates without spooking markets into a massi...
09/26/2022
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