User3896_3_t Lenn HarleySearch Listing in Maryland and Northern Virginia
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I just had a long conversation with one of the brokers in my network and we were getting caught up on the status of referrals and had an interesting conversation about the Maryland real estate market. 

I've had this same conversation with a several brokers and agents this week.  Some facts are clear: 

WE WOULD BUY IF WE COULD SELL.  We do not have the "move up" buyers this year because the would be move up buyers can't sell what they have. In past years, the "move up" buyers were a good 50% of our business, mostly selling the townhome or starter home and buying new construction or semi-luxury or luxury resales. 

I DON'T WANT A TOWN HOME.  Most of the buyers we're seeing are First Time Home Buyers and many of them will not buy because of credit problems or they are simply not satisfied with what they're qualified to buy.  That has always been the picture of the First Time Home Buyer market.  However, we'll continue to market to the first time buyers because they keep agents busy. 

WE WANT THE BEST SCHOOLS BUT WE ONLY WANT TO RENT NOW.  Relocating buyers are skittish and more of them want to rent to "get to know the area" or don't want to buy now because they think the market will be better a year from now.  It won't but they have no way of knowing that.  Relocating home buyers who decide to rent rather than buying in the area of choice, often contact us later to find out how to "break the lease" when they get their first paycheck with no interest deduction for tax purposes.  Changing their W-0 from 7 exemptions to 1 or 2 puts a dent in their take home pay.  Sorry, you can't break your lease.  You can only buy your way out of it. 

HOW LOW DO YOU THINK THEY'LL GO?  Prices are way down here but buyers expect it to be much, much lower.  A 30-40% drop in price doesn't impress many buyers because they have no historical perspective and they still want to negotiate another 20%.  So, they buy nothing. 

It's the toughest market I have ever seen.

But, we're still building our advertising base and getting ready for the "pent up demand". 

  Snow in Lovettsville 1:30 p.m.

Of course, we first have to get by this. . . . . . . .  and this. 

Shucks, who would hire a cantankerous old goat real estate broker anyway?

 
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27 Comments on ARE YOU GETTING READY FOR THE "PENT UP DEMAND" FROM HOME BUYERS?

I'd hire you in a heart beat !! Yea, we gotta get through the holiday's and snow. Actually our fall is not going to bad, so that is encouraging.

09/03/2008 05:49 PM by Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor)


I hear a lot about that "pent up demand"  not seeing a lot of it in action though.  It's all about the ratios...

I bet you look great with a santa hat, Lenn.

09/03/2008 05:57 PM by Melina Tomson, M.S. Salem Oregon Real Estate Specialist (Tomson Burnham, llc)


Forget the snow!  We have to get past November 4th.

I'm going fishing.

09/03/2008 06:05 PM by Amanda Hall * Texas Real Estate Broker * (Hall Team Homes )


Come to Palm Springs to help you get through the snow this winter!  We have sunshine all winter long!

 

09/03/2008 06:06 PM by Paul Kaplan, MidCentury Properties, Condos, 1st time buyers, in Palm Springs (Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate, an affiliate of Christies )


Lenn,

Buyers here in Vegas are starting to come off the fence, especially first-timers, and going after bank repos in the lower segment of the market. There is very good value now. Pent-up demand, we are certainly gearing up for it, too.

09/03/2008 06:20 PM by Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant (Sinifox Financial)


I'd hire you in a flash, and so should any serious and qualified buyer...without an agent... in your market. Our community is doing pretty well cmpared to some parts of San Diego. I anticipate more movement now that kids are back in school. Yep, Novemeber 4 is looming, and things aren't going to change quickly.

Jeff

09/03/2008 06:22 PM by Jeff Dowler ~ Carlsbad Real Estate ~ 760-840-1360 (RE/MAX Associates)


Lenn, The buyers are back but they seem to be intimidated by the inventory. They're taking their time to make a decision until they see ALL the homes for sale in their price range.  Ugh!

09/03/2008 06:50 PM by Richard Iarossi - REALTOR® Crofton MD Real Estate (Long and Foster® Real Estate, Inc.)


Some of my "hot leads" for the fall have turned "warm" as they want to wait and see what the election brings.  Hard to convenince them that it won't bring any instant changes.

09/03/2008 06:59 PM by Cindy Jones-Northern Virginia Real Estate & Military Relocation Services (RE/MAX Allegiance #1 RE/MAX Company in the World)


Lenn-  In Westport, unit sales for the first half of the year were in the toilet very weak.  July, however, was our best month, year-to-date and only 3% below July '07.  I think it was "pent up demand" of those buyers that wanted to be in place before the school year and gave up on waiting for prices to drop like a rock (they never did.)

August is back at a screeching halt, but that could be seasonal.  It will be interesting to see how the fall market plays out.

09/03/2008 08:05 PM by Marilyn Katz - ABR, e-PRO - WestportCTProperties.com (Prudential Connecticut Realty)


Ya, what is with all the snow!!! On a different note I am seeing a lot of buyers starting to move back into the market.

09/03/2008 08:23 PM by Billie Chubb (Chubb Realty Group)


Maybe Santa will have "new home" on his list and it will be a hot december?  One can hope :)

09/03/2008 08:23 PM by Gail Tassey (Keller Williams Realty)


Yep.  Pent up demand is a real phenomonon. However, there needs to be a little money flowing in the system to release it.  Prices can drop more but if no one can get a mortgage because they have no money saved for a down payment it won't mean much.

I just had some one low ball one of my lsitings by $105,000 - almost a third of the asking price!  The Seller wasn't interested.  It's time for some buyers to get with the program and realize prices may have reached bottom or close to it.

09/03/2008 08:53 PM by Ken Montville -- the MD Suburbs of DC (RE/MAX Advantage Realty)


I do think that there will be a burst of activity from pent up demand before it settles back down to a stable level that is dictated by the new lower numbers of qualified buyers.

Once everyone agrees that prices have leveled out.

Richard

09/03/2008 11:11 PM by Richard Smith Mortgages Home Loans FHA TN GA AL (American Acceptance Mortgage, Inc)


We're seen a bit of a slowdown in August too in Branford which is pretty typical as summer winds down but I'm feeling very optimistic going into the fall market.  One of my biggest pet peeves is no matter how much inventory is out there or how low the prices have come down in recent months. buyers continue to lowball their offers.  It's get so frustrating at times.

09/03/2008 11:43 PM by Donna Bigda Realtor® Branford Connecticut Real Estate-RE/MAX Alliance (RE/MAX Alliance)


Paul.  Not possible.  My homes is now worth a fraction of what I paid for it.  Good thing I love my home.

Amanda.  That's almost irresistable.  The Bass are biting hard in our area in another month.  You've got those lunker Bass. 

Melina.  I'm looking for "pent up demand" in the Spring. 

 

09/04/2008 07:28 AM by Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate


I'll be ready. I've been ready. I expect the fall and winter to be very slow, with a burst of activity after the first of the year...then another bunch of sellers will flood the market and slow things down again.

09/04/2008 08:06 AM by Kelly Sibilsky (Licensed Through Professional Referrals, Inc.)


Kelly.  Isn't that the way it always is?  It appears that the only thing that has changed is the volume.

09/04/2008 08:14 AM by Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate


"It's the toughest market I have ever seen."  MEGA DITTOS!  When this finally picks up, I will be in a good position, but it isn't here just yet!  I am worried that I cannot pick a bottom.  I think post elections we will have a new surge in optimism.

09/04/2008 08:17 AM by Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO (RE/MAX Greater Atlanta)


Jim.  I have never found that an alection affected the market here at all. 

 

09/04/2008 03:43 PM by Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate


Lenn I would hire an "cantankerous old goat real estate broker, we would identify with each other real well ...... LOL

Lenn, First Time Homebuyers are a huge part of my business.  The loans might be smaller but they are steady :)

09/04/2008 08:52 PM by George Souto (McCue Mortgage Co.)


Shucks, who would hire a cantankerous old goat real estate broker anyway?

Anyone with half a mind? Yep that's it. We can get through it and you are so right on and dead on target. This market is a strange animal, it is. It's not bad...just different. We have to out-think our sphere. That's what I'm spending time doing right now....thinking...will it work? I dunno.

I just keep trying. Thanks Lenn,

Later in the rain~Deb

09/04/2008 08:58 PM by Deb at Brooks Prime Properties


Lenn, It is still too hot here for the pent ups to come out - summer is always our worst time, our market seasonally starts in October and ends in May, opposite of most of the world.

I usually joke around and say 'don't call me in August, it's too hot'.  Well, nobody did!

Lookin' forward to October, and getting my ducks in a sweaty little row.

09/07/2008 03:25 PM by Virginia Hepp - Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Agent (ERA Brokers Consolidated - Mesquite NV Homes)


This is a fun blog.  I love the way you said we have to get by Christmas and Winter, with pictures only.  It is a tough time now in real estate but we'll make it.

09/24/2008 07:17 PM by Barbara S. Duncan ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO Searcy AR (RE/MAX Advantage)


Lenn I love the winter snowy photo - its ohh so wonderful!  And a historical perspective is probably what we  should educate our buyers with.......maybe even a 'historical perspective' page on our Website!

09/25/2008 01:24 AM by Liz Moras - Chilliwack Realtor - Chilliwack Real Estate Sales (Associate Broker for ReMax Nyda Realty)


Thank god I live in California, is all I have to say. Well, that's not all I have to say. Buyers are all over homes priced under $200,000 in Sacramento, like hot fudge on a sundae. Multiple offers are the norm. I know agents in my office who say, 'If one more buyer calls me, I'm going to scream." Hopefully this is hysteria will soon move in your direction.

elizabeth weintraub sacramento real estate agent in land park

09/25/2008 01:34 PM by Elizabeth Weintraub, Sacramento Real Estate Broker (Lyon Real Estate)


Elizabeth.  Hi.

I have had one buyer call today.  Sent him to an agent and lender.  Very, very slow. 

Liz.  I have a lot of photos on my web sites, but not of snow.

Barbara.  I'm waiting for the pent up demand to get loose.

Deb.  It is, without doubt, the worse market I have witnessed.

George.  You're smart.  I have been seeking first time home buyers too.  Move up buyers can't sell what they have.  I'm identifying all kinds of niches for our agents.

 

09/25/2008 02:10 PM by Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate


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Real Estate Brokerage: Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate
Lenn Harley
Rockville, MD
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