I just had a long conversation with one of the brokers in my network and we were getting caught up on the status of referrals and had an interesting conversation about the Maryland real estate market.
I've had this same conversation with a several brokers and agents this week. Some facts are clear:
WE WOULD BUY IF WE COULD SELL. We do not have the "move up" buyers this year because the would be move up buyers can't sell what they have. In past years, the "move up" buyers were a good 50% of our business, mostly selling the townhome or starter home and buying new construction or semi-luxury or luxury resales.
I DON'T WANT A TOWN HOME. Most of the buyers we're seeing are First Time Home Buyers and many of them will not buy because of credit problems or they are simply not satisfied with what they're qualified to buy. That has always been the picture of the First Time Home Buyer market. However, we'll continue to market to the first time buyers because they keep agents busy.
WE WANT THE BEST SCHOOLS BUT WE ONLY WANT TO RENT NOW. Relocating buyers are skittish and more of them want to rent to "get to know the area" or don't want to buy now because they think the market will be better a year from now. It won't but they have no way of knowing that. Relocating home buyers who decide to rent rather than buying in the area of choice, often contact us later to find out how to "break the lease" when they get their first paycheck with no interest deduction for tax purposes. Changing their W-0 from 7 exemptions to 1 or 2 puts a dent in their take home pay. Sorry, you can't break your lease. You can only buy your way out of it.
HOW LOW DO YOU THINK THEY'LL GO? Prices are way down here but buyers expect it to be much, much lower. A 30-40% drop in price doesn't impress many buyers because they have no historical perspective and they still want to negotiate another 20%. So, they buy nothing.
It's the toughest market I have ever seen.
But, we're still building our advertising base and getting ready for the "pent up demand".

Of course, we first have to get by this. . . . . . . . and this.
Shucks, who would hire a cantankerous old goat real estate broker anyway?
I'd hire you in a heart beat !! Yea, we gotta get through the holiday's and snow. Actually our fall is not going to bad, so that is encouraging.