Here's a very interesting video (17,000 views on Youtube so far) of the Glenn Beck show explaining why Jon Washburn is right when he talks about NAR's failings.
72 Comments on NAR doing a disservice to REALTORS, consumers and themselves
WE are in a down turn price wise, but how that plays out for us and for our clients depends on how we work it, it is a real time of opportunity as well right now.
It's pretty pathetic. Of course NAR's job is to (1) lobby for Realtors with the government, and (2) improve Realtor's image. They haven't been doing much of job at either of these.
Well I think you are just as misleading as anything else I read. Real estate is regional. Your market is different than mine. When you speak of the market as a whole it does not speak of my market. I dont think the NAR is doing anything wrong. They are trying to do damage control on the horrible spin the media is putting on the market by not properly disclosing how the market is in certain areas. I mean the media says the market is bad and worse and failing and crashing and yet its not in my area. We are not seeing huge amounts of foreclosures. So for the NAR to try to discredit the media and show how the media is wrong is more true to my market than anything else.
Cool, you're from Eau Claire WI -- three of my closest friends are from Eau Claire (Nate Moch, who runs Zillow's mortgage business; Wendy Moch, his sister; and Chad Lorentz). Wendy and Chad are trying to sell an investment property in Eau Claire. Their house has been on the market forever -- if the market there is as good as you say it is, please find them a buyer!! They would be ecstatic.
Anyway Shane, no one has to remind me that real estate is local. Zillow produces home valuations on about 80 million unique homes three times a week. We know that every home is different, and that every region is different. We produce detailed quarterly reports on home values in 165 cities (more than any other source, including NAR, Case-Schiller, OFHEO, or anyone). So I totally agree that all real estate is local.
My issue with NAR always putting on a happy face is that it hurts their credibility. I'm a frequent guest on broadcast news shows discussing real estate and I can't tell you the number of times when, after the cameras stop rolling, the reporter has said to me "it's so refreshing to have someone speak honestly about what's going on -- with NAR, it's always spin spin spin". It's great to try to call out the positive aspects of what's going on (and you'll always see me try to do this -- for example, Austin, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma City are all flat or up, and I always mention that in my interviews) but you have to also be honest and straight forward. It's kind of like how the 27th time President Bush says that the economy is doing great, you start to tune him out and not think of him as a credible source about the economic climate.
Ok I agree with you completely. I guess it just didnt sound that way when you summarized that before.
Are you from Eau Claire then? I swear those names sound familar. I will check on that listing for you.
.. ok im back. Just taking a quick look I will email you my thoughts so its private.
I like zillow alot btw. I just wanted to say its got to be tough to not do something when the media is so negative.
Shane - Nope, i'm not from Eau Claire (I'm from New York, then LA, then Boston, then NY, then San Francisco, then LA, then Seattle! But no Eau Claire). Thanks for your great comments, and I'll follow up with you offline by email.
I don't believe I've ever seen Mr Beck before. He's quite entertaining. He did a great job selling HIS SIDE of the story. Now you're helping him along.
His consistent theme relates to prices/appreciation (well, depreciation of course). As best I can tell for the 6-15 word quotes he uses, they are talking about unit volume. The two are completely different issues. Even if most individuals don't care HOW MANY homes sell, they only care HOW MUCH they make.
I have no idea how his segment relates to the call to buy Move.com though.
I'm sorry but I cant find the motivation to look into this post. Just the author being from Zillow.com making a slam against the NAR gave me the general impression of politics. That's enough for me to stay neutral. Spin spin spin?
Mr. Beck sounds like the Rush Limbaugh of Real Estate. The market in my area is up 15.45% from last year. I know there are some areas that are struggling - but in Enid, OK it could not be better. Real Estate is local
I agree the NAR is too optimistic but for Zillow to claim that the NAR is the cause of homeowners "misunderstanding what their house is worth" is like the pot calling the kettle black then! ANY active real estate agent can do a better job of valuing a property than a homeowner using Zillow. (There is enough negative press about Zillow estimates that I don't have to go into it here.) Regarding the video debunking anything positive ever said by the NAR, well in my market things DO appear to be turning around and I'm in a market that is considered distressed. My buyers have been in multiple offer situations all year. Additionally, last year I had quite a few move-up sellers/buyers who were selling their house in our market and moving into a bigger house in the same market--in fact, I did it and don't regret it. Obviously there are plenty of losers that entered the market in the past two year and are trying to sell now or can't afford their homes. Fortunately, plenty of buyers and sellers are not negative about the housing market.
The NAR is a joke, Zillow is worst than a joke.
Talk to a local experienced Real Estate Agent or Real Estate Investor before you buy.
"If you want to buy stocks don't listen to anyone who makes a living selling stocks". Just a thought I have after watching Glen's piece.
I totally agree with you. NAR is too optimistic. Zillow claimed that the NAR is the cause of homeowners "misunderstanding what their house is worth" is like the pot calling the kettle black! Many move-up sellers/buyers are selling their house in this market and moving up to a better home.
It's so very important to tell the truth no matter how painful or difficult it may be. When I mention now may not be a good time for buyers and I give specific examples why I think prices may continue to fall, I get hammered as though what I'm speaking is borderline treason.
However, we have found opportunities for buyers that were favorable (think price) and we jumped on them. I'm sure you've got data that will support some sellers "get it".
You cannot make blanket statements about an entire country and have every region fall into that cookie cutter statement. I am NOT seeing huge numbers of foreclosures. Yes, they're there. But they were always there. We are not seeing huge declines. We're stagnant... slow... but it's no crash in rural Penna.
I like Glenn Beck, and he's often spot-on with some of the stuff he exposes. But I think you also have to look at this another way.
I really think that one of the biggest reasons for the bubble was the constant pessimistic predictions FROM the people who had some influence. All we heard was bubble, bubble, bubble. And the investors got scared and stopped buying. It had to slow down eventually, but those constant gloom and doom boys were a big reason that it tanked so hard and so fast.
There's nothing that wrong with offering hope for better market soon. If enough "celebrities" like Donald Trump put the word out there, it might very well make it happen. And for the record, Donald DOES say to buy now, and has ever since last November on the Larry King show. Personally, I would put my faith in someone like Trump before I would Glenn Beck...who is basically only trying to be entertaining.
Just my two cents. Hasn't bought a cup of coffee in many years...:-)
Spencer, I have to agree that NAR looks very foolish with all of their predictions of the "bottom". I work in a very niche market in Central Florida with a population of 70,000, Poinciana. In Poinciana values have declined just a little over 50% in the last 18 months.
Over 80% of the sales in July were REOs or short sales. We have 2.5 years worth of inventory. We are averaging about 40 closings a month out of 1,200 active listings. The Polk county side of Poinciana has a 15% foreclosure rate, that's 1 in 7 properties.
So believe me what I say NAR is way off when it comes to what I see everyday. I talk to sellers just about every day and very few have even heard of NAR. Fewer yet have heard of Zillow. They just want to sell their houses and they could not care less what the market is doing in any place BUT Poinciana. As folks that are in the industry I personally think we forget that the average seller or buyer doesn't even listen to or read this stuff. They are too busy working for a living.
The media is NOT doing any harm to the market is just reporting the facts.
How can you spin that the whole US market is not on a down turn?
How can you say that your market is "different" than the rest of the US?
Did you have double the sales,a double digit appreciation and multiple offers on your listings like three years ago? Have you have no en epidemic of NODs and foreclosures
If this is not the case the media is correct.
Now the NAR is out to lunch and has been the last ten years or so.What is the NAR going to do to catch up with the times is anyone guess, judging from past performance.
Here is what I know and if it is practice one can take it to the bank.
This is a rare opportunity for brokers and agents to hep people ge in to the market at a price that can affort .By doing so they can make them selves way more money than had in the "good times".
Remember the more negative the press the better for consumers ,and real estate professionals
Glenn Beck is an entertainer, and he does his job well. Let's face it, NAR is a pretty big target when numbers are down across the country.
I can say that the constant negative spin of the news media IS impacting the current housing market. In the Tulsa area, our real estate never "boomed" and our market stayed consistent. 2007 literally WAS the 2nd best year in our home sales history, yet every day we hear negative comments from Sellers and Buyers. Their "perception" of the market has led to lower offers, and more Buyers asking for concessions that we wouldn't have seen in a market this strong in the past. So the "perception" drives the reality.
Arguments about real estate being local don't hold water when a "good" market can be taken down by "bad" reporting.
The truth of the matter is, whether the market is good or bad, we'll be dealing with this type of news for at least the next 2 years, until the media decides to stop feeding the problem, or finally grows bored with it. What does Glenn Beck actually know about real estate, other than how to criticize and poke fun at people who are trying to conduct themselves professionally?
Media doesn't have to make sense--it only seeks to provoke reaction.
A wise broker once told me that there is a good market and a bad market inside of every market.
I'm guessing Zillow's trying to position itself as the "reconometrics" source of choice. I have two legitimate questions for Zillow (feel free to take a few days to answer, Spence- I don't expect you to bang the answers out):
1- When does Zillow think we'll hit bottom? More specifically, which year will the first year-over-year increase occur, for the national median house price?
2- What annual rate of return would Zillow place, for the next decade, for residental real estate?
It's easy to poke fun at economists; it's harder to walk in their shoes.
The NAR has already blown their credibility. When you always have the same answer regardless of the question... that kind of happens. Like "Change you can believe in" regardless of the question... doesn't mean anything any more.
NAR is a mess - I have little or no respect for what they are doing. But I have even less for Zillow and their "zestimates" that are so far off the mark that they create nothing but confusion in our market. It has ruined deals, caused direct harm to property values and yet you have no liability _ MARVELOUS! I hope someone eventually finds a way to bring a giant class action suit against you guys. Someone may well do it. You've created enough damage.
The very fact that you don't "get" that real estate is truly local speaks volumes.
I agree with the post above, that Zillow is trying to position itself in the eyes of the public as a source of choice.
Glen Beck is an independent thinker and has no formal political affiliation. Real Estate agents are the best source for pricing in the market. Locally, in our areas Zillow is off the mark, but perhaps elsewhere this is different. Overtime we'll know if these prices hold up in consumer's eyes and more importantly in the eyes of local realtors who as mentioned have the knowledge to accurately depict local home values. Thanks for posting this article.
Shane is EXACTLY right! Real Estate IS Regional! We haven't experienced any "collapse of values" here in the Quad Cities either. I have sold over 30 of my listings since the first of the year and am on track to have my BEST year ever in Real Estate (over $10 Million in sales @ an average of $145,000 per transaction) and I first got my license in 1977!
If I were to pick the Best scenario for Buying a Home, it would be Low Interest Rates, Low Unemployment, and Good Values..........um..........isn't that what we have??? That IS what we have in Davenport, Iowa and the surrounding area.
Since I actually SELL Real Estate (and not just TALK about it like some people in this blog), let me site a specific example for you:
2508 Harrison Street, Unit G1, LP 54,000, SP 48,500, Closing Date 11-30-05
2508 Harrison Street, Unit G1, LP 55,000, SP 55,000, Closing Date 7-17-08
I sold this unit to someone who did Nothing to improve the property in the 2 years and almost 8 months that she just lived there. We then put it on the market (and it didn't show very well....I'll be happy to send you the MLS pix with clothes on the bed, etc.) and it SOLD in just 19 days!!! All of this information is PUBLIC and can easily be verified.
The Quad City area didn't experience the Housing Bubble that many areas across the country experienced so we had no Bubble to Burst. It is nothing short of RECKLESS for any source to take a paint brush and make a broad stroke across any area and with a blanket statement whether it is NAR, Glen Beck, or Zillow! (Who's spinning Whom?)
If Zillow would do their work in more than 165 cities (instead of just Cherry Picking the Big Communities where they make the most money), they might find out that there is more to their "Big Picture" than meets the eye.
Real Estate IS Regional. Don't believe it, just come to Davenport, Iowa! Or, you can continue to spread the fertilizer of half truths by not including ALL communities. I'm sure that the Media DOES thank you after interviews. Misery LOVES company.
There are some areas that are still doing well -- some based on selling large numbers of foreclosures and others just have a healthy business -- there is still demand with very little decrease in price due to desireablilty of those areas. ~ Evelyn
Ruthmarie, this is a perfect example of what Rush calls the "drive-by media." I guess we can add Zillow to that list. They throw in hand grenades of innacurate news and run off to wreak more havoc elsewhere. Nobody can hold them accountable. All we can do is EDUCATE with evidence that is accurate.
The "Media" was conditioning people for a "crash" before it happened. Many of these people think they ARE the news, not the reporters of it, and "perception is reality" far too often. All it takes is one voice with some perceived authority to send markets into a tailspin, even if it is for a day or two. Look what happens when politicians say something negative. It has always been that way. Of course, overspecuation was in there, also. There are many factors. Our entire economy is based on consumer confidence.
Real estate is more local than even we think. In Greenville, SC real estate has remained very strong, but 30 miles to the west sales are down 75% over two years. We have radio ads here tellling people that, even if the national picture isn't good, in Greenville it is great. Media influence is powerful.
My younger brother Lucky in Davenport Iowa Real Estate is absolutely correct.
Lawrence Kansas Real Estate is even better in that the two year turnover student townhomes used to be $48,000 to $52,000 in 2005, $58,000 to $62,000 in 2006, $68,000 to $72,000 in 2007, and in 2008 are $75,000 to $82,000 and the year is not over. The Lawrence Kansas Real Estate Market is thriving here.
National averages mean nothing in the local real estate market.
NAR seems to be off base frequently these days. They ran a 1-page article that was more of an AD recently in REALTOR magazine promoting how wonderful in-house one-stop-shops were. I read it and thought it truly was an ad!
someone posted: But I have even less for Zillow and their "zestimates" that are so far off the mark that they create nothing but confusion in our market. (my note: see, it says "in OUR market").
A mortgage broker responded: Are they? They're awfully close to accurate in San Diego.
I ask: so, you're accepting zestimates instead of appraisals for your mortgages?
Wow, the negativity against Zillow never ceases to amaze me. Zillow happens to be very accurate in my area. Not always, but it's reasonable. In my experience, people are generally pretty smart and when you explain how Zillow derives their Zestimate, they realize quickly the limitations it has.
Heck, a savvy agent could even use that to their advantage...
I posted this same video on NARWisdom.com. It's an interesting look at how the NAR and their generally pollyannaish views can be perceived.
It's a shame this turned into a Zillow bashing party rather than a conversation on how and what the NAR is doing, or should be doing, to help their membership.
All real estate is local. The fact that Zillow is accurate in some areas and inaccurate in others merely illustrates this truism. If NAR chooses to put an optimistic spin on expectations, it's the balance against all the gloom and doom of the drive-bys who have helped drive the housing market down.
NAR may not be perfect but this video is horribly misleading. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight home prices which are what people care about, rose in 30 states between June of 2007 and June of 2008 and only 4 states saw price decreases of greater than 5% and wouldn't you know that those are the states which saw the highest increases during the boom. Only California saw a decrease of 15%. NAR has to do something to try and correct what the media is portraying and you aren't helping running a video like this. May be if they said California saw a decrease of 15% it would be different but I don't like putting California numbers on my Missouri market. Bad media is doing more harm than good and they should stick to the areas it pertains to. Here is the link and it state info starts on page 13 if anyone would like to see for themselves. http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/2q08hpi.pdf
The reason this has some Zillow bashing behind it is because the post bashing the NAR was posted by a Zillow exec. Ironic. I am very fortunate to have clients thinking on their own two feet and doing their own evaluation of "facts" vs. "hype" regardless of what the NAR or Zillow says.
Here are a couple of Zillow estimates (Orlando Area) and a recent BPO comparison (addresses with held);
3 Bedroom, 2 bath Townhome (1214 square feet):
Zestimate: $132,500 BPO: $106,000
4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Single Family (1476 square feet):
Zestimate: $194,000 BPO: $134,000
4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Single Family Home (2308 square feet):
Zestimate: $299,000 BPO: $239,000
Note: All three of these comparisons were made with a Bank Ordered BPO and all were done within the last 45 days. These 3 were the only ones that I checked into. 3 for 3 being way off was reason enough to stop looking into it.
The argument can be made that Zillow is accurate some of the time, but who wants to be right every now and then. The fact is that selling a home is not an easy task right now, and having an accurate idea of what the market is bearing is the only way to effectively sell your home. Zillow is nothing more than a computer generated tool that is only as good as the data it has collected. It takes a human to crunch the numbers in order to get an accurate projection.
Let me just leave this blog at that. This post started as a political ploy and brought up some interesting points, but none the less, it has moved in a new direction. Zillow... stick to your site and stay away from this one if you are looking to find a sympathetic ear. Your site and sites like it are some of the biggest sources of poor information that we as Realtors have to over come and explain before we can even get to do our job.
It is my opinion that Zillow does a disservice to consumers by making eronious information available.
I've always believed that phony enthusiasm can wreck havoc with any business, Spencer. Seems the false positives are generated by the paid cheerleaders of the industry in the same manner the Corleone Family paid the newspaper reporters to drum up the story on Captain McCluskey, connecting him with Virgil Sollozzo and the drug racquets, in 'The Godfather'.
"Your site and sites like it are some of the biggest sources of poor information that we as Realtors have to over come and explain before we can even get to do our job.
It is my opinion that Zillow does a disservice to consumers by making eronious information available"
Just curious Darrel if you're going to say the same thing about Realtor.com when it begings offering automated home valuations.
Zillow isn't the only site offering an AVM, there are MANY more. Are they all just as evil as Zillow?
Mr. Thompson: If and when Realtor.com rolls out an AVM service I'll take a loot at it then. I would speculate that the information there would be a bit more accurate mainly because of where the data comes from. But then again, it could be just as far off as Zillow. But to cut it short, I wont bash Realtor.com for something that hasn't been put in place yet. Thanks for posting, even if I dont know your affiliation. Homeowner, Realtor, Mortgage Broker, Zillow employee?
It's not a matter of if, but when. The "if" has already been decided for you (aren't you glad you had a say in R.com introducing it?). It has been on the R.com beta site for quite some time and discussed frequently on AR and in the real estate blogosphere.
There was also an article in July's Realtor Magazine, and a "letter to the Editor" in the recent (September) issue on page 8.
The data comes from public info (just like Zillow and all the other AVMs) as well as R.com listings. Regardless of where the data originates, it's a piece of software determining value -- not a human being. As such it should be subject to the same scrutiny (if not more since it is supposedly "our" site) as any other AVM.
It looks like you'll be able to pay (handsomely I'd suspect) to be a "featured" agent on the R.com AVM page.
Jay, Realtor.com and their practices could be a complete new discussion. I've seen some of the discussion about the AVM on R.com and it is still in "beta". Personally I dont like any AVM, and I would have to lean to certainly not liking a Realtor site providing any form of it. Leave pricing to actual people who do it for a living, they should know a bit more than any computer.
Brian Brady: In the NW Suburbs of Chicago they can be up to 30% off. That's not accurate in my opinion - what about you? Glad things are "accurately sinking" in San Diego according to Zillow.
Hello Spencer, This is really pretty funny coming from you guys at Zillow - the pot calling the kettle black! LOL I'm sure that NAR has the same opinion of your professionalism. Are you a member in NAR? So why take them on? Just trying to be contoversial for the fun of it?
As someone asked you above - what does the all knowing Zillow say about the bottom of the market? When will it occur to your all knowing computer/algorithm? Why doesn't Zillow go live in the media and do THEIR PREDICTION? Don't you think it would give you loads of credability in the public by standing up and voicing your opinions like Glenn Beck? Where's that all knowing microphone that Zillow has?
Spencer great post...and great comments! I find humor in the fact that soo many people defend NAR and their ridiculous claims. Statistically all statistics are statistics. If people we're to look around, read, and keep an open mind and educate themselves they would be able to see that the market isn't getting better...and it will continue to decline until the credit industry strenthens. When will that be?
Yes, Real Estate is local, but the no money to lend, even the best locations are going to be hit.
Hello everyone, we still have 2 more sets up arms to explode! We're looking at a year at least! It's great to be optimistic, but it's also great to be realistic!
When is zillow going to get realistic with home evaluations?
This almost sounds ike a zillow ad, we are playing along. I smell a set up. I have always enjoyed Beck but this is not is area of expertise nor his finest reporting.
Hey all, thanks for the feedback. Spencer's unfortunately out of the office - welcoming his 2nd child into the world - so you're stuck with me until he gets back.
Brian - Zillow does not currently forecast the trend in home values or the housing market. Forecasting tools may lie in our future but I personally think that predictions are a big part of the credibility problem for the housing economists. Trying to "call the bottom" is almost guaranteed to make a fool out of you but what we can say with confidence is that the national market has not yet bottom'd. Frankly, just knowing what's currently happening to home values is an incredibly hard problem to solve without trying to predict all the things that may impact them in the future.
Jami - OFHEO is a better source of macro home value trends than NAR's median sales analysis but it's not reliable in all states. The OFHEO analysis excludes loans above $417K and so it is not going to be a very accurate analysis in some of the coastal states that have been most impacted by the bubble (hence the slightly rosier story their data tells). For more on the limitations of OFHEO, read this blog post.
Pot calls kettle black ...
A few folks have made this accusation. Zestimate accuracy is not really on topic here but it's seemingly impossible to separate Zillow from Zestimates and so I'll take a crack at addressing this criticism.
The topic of Spencer's post is the accuracy of NAR's advice with regards to national trends in home values. The accuracy of individual homes' values is not the issue here but on that topic, Zillow's advice is clear, honest and accurate - Zestimates are (only) estimates. They are a starting point for research purposes but are not a substitute for the advice of a local expert. To further illustrate that Zestimates are estimates, Zillow transparently publishes its Zestimate accuracy in all geographies. Now, contrast that level of honesty and deep analysis with the blind confidence of the NAR's "great time to buy" messaging. Zillow Zestimates may be off-base more often than you would like them to be but at least Zillow is the first to admit that. That alone is a huge difference between how NAR and Zillow approach the press. Honesty has undoubtedly helped Zillow's credibility. There may be a marketing lesson for the NAR there somewhere. Maybe it will take more than quietly moving David Lereah aside for NAR to show that they know that they were wrong.
More importantly, and the issue that most RE pro's seem to misunderstand, the potential for inaccuracy in individual homes' Zestimate values does not really impact Zillow's ability to accurately analyze macro trends in home values. This distinction between micro and macro real estate economics is complex and is poorly understood but to put it simply ... while an RE pro should be the final word on a home's value, an analyst should probably be the final word on what's happening to all homes' values in a region. Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports consider the change in value of all homes in an area. That analysis is simply not possible with MLS data and using MLS sales to analyze home value trend leads to flawed conclusions because it's an approach that only considers the values of a small subset of homes (i.e. those homes that recently sold.) In a bubble market, a median sales analysis will typically identify the market peak way after it's happened and will then overstate the market correction on the other side. Read this blog post for more detail about why a median sales analysis is a flawed approach to measuring home values.
I am a REALTOR since 6 years now and I would lie if I say that I am not critical with our association, yes we can do better in many things, I am asking my self why we do not have more requirements "Learning" before we obtain the real estate licence. I am sure that setting the bar to higher lever is a Real Estate Commissioners problem and I believe they can do better. So it is not only NAR's failure but also the individual States legislation. I wish to see more full time proficiency like we see with other professionals. One day I hope to see announcements for the best REALTOS that consult and served the clients well and make them top producers instead of those that receive the awards due to the $$$ Volume they have produced.
About the video! Well I have being trying to understand this guy "Glenn Beck" for long time. I finally came to the conclusion that he is person who was give the wrong job for lots of money that he is not worth it. I am wondering who gives him tat money? Glenn Beck is not a journalist, he is not a reporter or even a media person. he is we trained and tuned to make opinions and influence peoples minds, hi is the same opinion fanatic like the other guy with Fox OLala or OLaly or something like it. I encourage them both to make this kind of reporting about attorneys or their association. I guarantee you, they will not be doing this job for long.
Last but not least I hope to see pure and neutral journalism in this country, that reports the real facts and stop giving us their opinion.
May be one day!
I am wondering why the NAR as well as all Sates Real Estate Commissioners are allowing and letting others like Zillow and many more to express their opinion on peoples best investment in their life?
Does the Lawyers Bar and our justice system permit others to legally consult people and represent them or even judge them in the name of law and courts? Or how about the medical sector, does the FDA permit any one to be a Doctor?
Spencer - Anyone who cannot say the word Realtor® has no credibility in my world. That includes other Realtors!! The word is REAL-TOR not REAL-IT-TER. The message is perspective which as we all know can be spun and turned any direction we choose. It would be a breach of my professional conduct to say more regarding Glen Beck’s message except for the obvious … the man cannot say the word Realtor correctly … so what does he really know … for all I know he could well be talking about another profession altogether.
Half the posts don't want anybody to say bad things about the market, a third just hate Zillow, All I know is that the NAR missed on this. Most of the nation is in a downturn. Most housing prices are down. Why can't people see the facts.
I wonder if Glen Beck could have done any better. It's very easy to sit behind a mic and have your own TV show to as your own personal platform to criticize others. It's even easier to do it after the downturn has already occurred. It's true, buyers DO have more choices, It's also true that buyers stand to benefit from lower prices and It's true that interest rates are still very low. Maybe I should start consulting Glen Beck on these issues before I work with another buyer or seller. NOT! I will say that I feel like I am on my own when dealing with consumers in terms of educating them on the value Realtors add and the many services that are provided. I do feel NAR could do more on our behalf. It's the only profession I know where a Realtor incurs all the expense and does all the work upfront before ever making a dime and many times never makes a dime.
IT is NAR job to educate the public and no one seems to get it through to the public that yes, the house prices are dropping but the interest rates are rising and anyone who is still waiting is missing the savings. Do the math on your loan??
Excuse me Mr. Beck - but it is not REALATOR - it is REALTOR. We are professional and we are local - which is what the Real Estate Market is all about! Real Estate is ALWAYS Local!!! And we do know our markets - and we are REALTORS!!!!
And I am a Glenn Beck Fan - I do know who he is!!!
David, thanks for responding; Congrats to Spencer.
Point of Disclosure: I am a participant in a soon-to-be-released Zillow feature but it never stops me from criticizing them. I criticize and participate with them because I believe they are the single best platform to shape the online real estate interface with consumers.
Here I go:
Forecasting tools may lie in our future but I personally think that predictions are a big part of the credibility problem for the housing economists.
I disagree; economists are supposed to forecast, call bottoms, and tops- that's their value.
Trying to "call the bottom" is almost guaranteed to make a fool out of you but what we can say with confidence is that the national market has not yet bottom'd.
Well, you just made a call, David. Your just said that the national housing market will still decline
Frankly, just knowing what's currently happening to home values is an incredibly hard problem to solve without trying to predict all the things that may impact them in the future.
Of course. That's why it's easy to criticize half of the economists. Rather than criticize them, I'd like to see Zillow start making predictions. I make them and I'm wrong sometimes....but, I make them. Data aggregation is not real difficult to do, Data interpretation is the real challenge.
Spencer Rascoff
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WE are in a down turn price wise, but how that plays out for us and for our clients depends on how we work it, it is a real time of opportunity as well right now.